EFFECTS OF COMMUNITY LEVEL FACTORS ON FERTILITY

我们的目标是：（1）建立一个完整的概念模型的决定因素 结合社区层面的因素。 该模型 扩展了家庭对儿童需求的经济模型， 明确包括更广泛的个人和家庭变量， 以及社区因素。 而最终的因变量是 最近的生育率、生育需求的决定因素和生育率的使用 监管也将被调查。 (2)形成一个概念性的观点， 环境影响生育力的过程， 从理论模型。 (3)制定适当的程序， 评估模型及其关键组件。 高级计量经济学 程序将用于估计个人、家庭和社区 决定因素 将仔细考虑变量是否 应被视为外源性或内源性（基于理论 模型），适当的时间关系，并假设 错误结构 (4)估计两个发展中国家的模型 使用异常丰富的数据集。 建议的国家和地区是 菲律宾和墨西哥的比科尔地区。 这些数据将允许测试a 更现实和复杂的家庭决策模式，包括 制定和测试更好的衡量依赖和独立的 变量 (5)模拟将用于帮助查明 缺失数据可能导致模型错误指定和偏倚 参数估计，并进行政策和行为模拟 使用两国的估计参数，从而帮助确定 未来的数据收集需求。 项目的实施应能使人们认识到 一个完整的家庭生育决策理论， 具体说明关于社区层面因素如何影响 生育 这将允许更有效的政策推断-一个主要的 长期目标。 同样，确定所需数据的领域 收集直接关系到另一个主要目标参与 今后调查中的问卷和调查/抽样设计 国家在填补差距方面取得进展。

Our aims are: (1) Develop a complete conceptual model of the determinants of fertility which incorporates community level factors. This model expands upon the economic model of household demand for children by explicitly including a broader range of individual and household variables, as well as community factors. While the ultimate dependent variable is recent fertility, determinants of demand for children and use of fertility regulation will also be investigates. (2) Develop a conceptual view of the processes by which the environment influences fertility, which arises from the theoretical model. (3) Develop appropriate procedures for estimating the model and its key components. Advanced econometric procedures will be used to estimate individual, household and community determinants. Careful consideration will be given to whether variables should be considered exogenous or endogenous (based on the theoretical model), to appropriate temporal relationships, and to assumptions about the error structure. (4) Estimate the model for two developing countries using unusually rich data sets. The countries and regions proposed are the Bicol region of the Philippines and Mexico. The data will permit testing a more realistic and complex model of household decision making, involving developing and testing better measures of the dependent and independent variables. (5) Simulation will be used to help pinpoint areas where missing data are likely to lead to model misspecification and biased estimates of parameters and to conduct policy and behavioral simulations using estimated parameters for the two countries, thereby helping identify future data collection needs. Implementation of the project should lead to an appreciation of the value of a complete theory of household fertility decision making for clearly specifying hypotheses about how community-level factors influence fertility. This will permit more valid policy inferences -- a major long-term objective. Similarly, identifying areas of needed data collection relates directly to another major objective to participate in questionnaire and survey/sample design in a future survey developing country to progress towards filling the gaps.