MORTALITY AND NUTRITIONAL STATUS--DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

在上个世纪之前， 发达国家和大多数第三世界国家， 传染病 目前，在发达国家， 传染病已经被退化性疾病所取代， 最常见的死亡原因。 一个关于 这种流行病学转变的原因是， 疾病下降，并被退行性疾病所取代， 营养特征变化的结果。 总目标 该项目的目的是定量研究 世界范围内营养状况的差异，按食物衡量 消费和人体测量，对三个人口 变量：死亡率水平，死亡率的年龄分布， 和死因结构。 第一，协会 世界范围内营养状况的变化， 将使用一个 全球生命表样本（1940年后）与 关于营养状况的信息。 死亡率的年龄分布 将使用五参数竞争风险模型进行评估， 以及死亡率和营养指标的比较 将使用多元回归分析进行状态分析。 将构造判别函数以确定是否 特征性营养模式与 典型的死亡模式。 第二，相关性 营养状况与12岁以下儿童的 将使用世界范围内的样本来确定死亡原因。 完整和原因递减生命表。 方法是相似的 上面描述的那些。 第三，前两个目标的结果 将被用来定义结构方程（因果）模型的 营养、死亡率、公共卫生、 教育、经济和社会变量。 这些分析将 使用世界范围内的生命表样本， 状态变量和第三个数据库组成的环境 社会变量。 模型将使用标准的 最大似然法和LISREL程序。 所得 模型将通过与已发表的结果进行比较来验证 在危地马拉和印度进行的营养实验。

The majority of deaths, prior to the last half century in the developed nations and in most third world countries today, result from infectious disease. Currently in the developed nations, these infectious diseases have been replaced by degenerative diseases as the most frequent causes of death. One hypothesis concerning the cause of this epidemiologic transition is that the infectious diseases decline and are replaced by degenerative diseases as a result of characteristic changes in nutrition. The overall goal of this project is to quantitatively investigate the effects of worldwide differences in nutritional status, as measured by food consumption and anthropometric measurements, on three demographic variables: the level of mortality, the age pattern of mortality, and the cause of death structure. First, the association of worldwide variation in nutritional status with the variation in level and age pattern of mortality will be explored, using a worldwide sample of life tables (post 1940) matched with information on nutritional status. The age pattern of mortality will be assessed using a five-parameter competing hazards model, and a comparison of the measures of mortality and nutritional status will be conducted using multiple regression analysis. Discriminant functions will be constructed to determine if characteristic nutritional patterns are associated with characteristic mortality patterns. Second, the correlations between nutritional status and the level of age pattern of 12 causes of death will be determined, using a sample of worldwide full and cause decremented life tables. The methods are similar to those described above. Third, the results of the first two aims will be used to define structural equation (causal) models of the relationship among nutrition, mortality, public health, educational, economic and social variables. These analyses will use the worldwide sample of life tables matched with nutritional status variables and a third data base consisting of environmental and social variables. The models will be fitted using standard maximum likelihood methods and the program LISREL. The resulting models will be validated by comparing them with published results of nutritional experiments, in Guatemala and India.