MORTALITY AND NUTRITIONAL STATUS--DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

在上个半个世纪之前的大多数死亡事件 发达国家和今天大多数第三世界国家的结果是 不会感染传染病。目前在发达国家，这些 传染病已经被退化性疾病所取代 最常见的死因。一种假设是关于 这种流行病学转变的原因是传染性 疾病衰落，并被退行性疾病取代 营养特性变化的结果。总目标 这个项目的目的是定量地调查 以食物衡量的全球营养状况差异 消费和人体测量，在三个人口统计学上 变量：死亡率水平，死亡率的年龄模式， 和死因结构。第一，中美关系 世界范围内营养状况的变化 将探讨死亡率水平和年龄模式，使用 世界范围的生命表样本(1940年后)与 有关营养状况的信息。死亡率的年龄模式 将使用五参数竞争危险模型进行评估， 以及死亡率和营养指标的比较 将使用多元回归分析进行状态分析。 将构造判别函数以确定 特有的营养模式与 典型的死亡模式。第二，相互关系 营养状况与12岁的年龄模式之间的关系 死亡原因将被确定，使用世界各地的样本 生命表已满，并导致寿命表减少。方法是相似的 与上面描述的那些相同。第三，前两个目标的结果 将用于定义结构方程(因果)模型 营养、死亡率、公共卫生、 教育、经济和社会变数。这些分析将 使用与营养相匹配的世界范围内的生命表样本 状态变量和由环境变量组成的第三个数据库 和社会变数。这些模型将使用标准的 极大似然法和LISREL程序。由此产生的 将通过将模型与发布的结果进行比较来验证模型 在危地马拉和印度进行的营养实验。

The majority of deaths, prior to the last half century in the developed nations and in most third world countries today, result from infectious disease. Currently in the developed nations, these infectious diseases have been replaced by degenerative diseases as the most frequent causes of death. One hypothesis concerning the cause of this epidemiologic transition is that the infectious diseases decline and are replaced by degenerative diseases as a result of characteristic changes in nutrition. The overall goal of this project is to quantitatively investigate the effects of worldwide differences in nutritional status, as measured by food consumption and anthropometric measurements, on three demographic variables: the level of mortality, the age pattern of mortality, and the cause of death structure. First, the association of worldwide variation in nutritional status with the variation in level and age pattern of mortality will be explored, using a worldwide sample of life tables (post 1940) matched with information on nutritional status. The age pattern of mortality will be assessed using a five-parameter competing hazards model, and a comparison of the measures of mortality and nutritional status will be conducted using multiple regression analysis. Discriminant functions will be constructed to determine if characteristic nutritional patterns are associated with characteristic mortality patterns. Second, the correlations between nutritional status and the level of age pattern of 12 causes of death will be determined, using a sample of worldwide full and cause decremented life tables. The methods are similar to those described above. Third, the results of the first two aims will be used to define structural equation (causal) models of the relationship among nutrition, mortality, public health, educational, economic and social variables. These analyses will use the worldwide sample of life tables matched with nutritional status variables and a third data base consisting of environmental and social variables. The models will be fitted using standard maximum likelihood methods and the program LISREL. The resulting models will be validated by comparing them with published results of nutritional experiments, in Guatemala and India.