COMPETING HAZARD MODELS OF MORTALITY AND FERTILITY

该项目的目标是开发和应用竞争性危险模型。 代表了一生中死亡率的年龄模式，以及 上一次出生后的存活率。未来的死亡模型是 被调查的是一个取自生态系统的五参数模型 文学。产次存活模型是基于Erlangian的 分布(伽玛分布的特例)。单纯形法 通过最小二乘法将危险函数与人口统计数据进行拟合 开发的目的是减少应用这些模型所需的计算机时间 以提高配合的精度。精确度和统计量 然后评估两种模型在小样本量下的稳定性 使用模拟数据。 将进行的申请包括： 1.确定以大范围表示的参数值范围 世界范围内的生命表样本，以及模型生命系统的发展 基于这一变化范围的表格， 2.死因结构与死因关系的调查 以及死亡率的年龄模式，使用了全球范围内的完整和 递减的生命表， 3.对北美哈特人人口的分析，以确定 婴儿死亡率对产次间隔的影响 近亲交配水平对人口比率的影响。

The aims of this project are to develop and apply competing hazard models representing the age pattern of mortality throughout life, and parity survivorship after a previous birth. The mortality model to be investigated is a five-parameter model taken from the ecological literature. The parity survivorship model is based on the Erlangian distribution (a special case of the Gamma distribution). Simplex methods of fitting hazard functions to demographic data by least squares will be developed to reduce the computer time necessary to apply these models and to increase the accuracy of the fit. The accuracy and statistical stability of both models with small sample sizes will then be evaluated using simulated data. Applications to be undertaken include: 1. Determination of the range of parameter values represented in a large worldwide sample of life tables, and development of a system of model life tables based on this range of variation, 2. An investigation of the relationship between cause of death structure and the age pattern of mortality, using a worldwide sample of full and decremented life tables, 3. An analysis of the North American Hutterite population to determine the influence of infant mortality on parity intervals, and the influence of level of inbreeding on demographic rates.