Resilient and Sustainable Biorenewable Systems Engineering Model (ReSBio)

在气候变化、能源和材料不安全等一系列环境挑战的推动下，从目前以化石为基础的经济向未来以生物为基础的经济的过渡预计将逐步演变，并带来后石油时代。英国政府已经制定了适应和缓解未来环境变化的过渡政策和战略，生物可再生碳资源将在实现英国2050年温室气体减排目标和支持国家适应努力方面发挥重要作用。欧盟目前的生物经济价值估计约为2万亿欧元，利用生物质资源产生的各种生物产品带来了巨大的潜力。与潮汐或风能等其他可再生能源不同，生物质能通过按需获取热能和电能，并为运输燃料或生物化学发电提供潜力，为克服供应不稳定和不可预测性提供了灵活的选择。资源评估显示，到2050年，英国的生物质可以满足近一半的国内能源需求，而不会影响土地利用。生物质衍生的增值化学品也代表着一个重要的市场；目前英国化工部门的年营业额为600亿GB，被描述为“绿色经济发展的心脏”。这种过多的生物可再生产品可以通过设计良好的集成生物精炼系统进行高效和可持续的转化。然而，人类对生物圈的使用和影响现在已经超过了环境的多重限制。因此，未来的生物可再生系统的部署需要一个量化的过渡建模工具，在生物可再生系统设计中引入复原力和可持续性思维方法，以提高在未来几十年应对环境压力或社会经济变化的整体能力。该项目旨在从用户的角度开发一个开源的生物可再生系统模型，并为未来生物可再生系统的可持续设计提供见解，以最好地适应和缓解未来的变化，为英国的可持续性和复原力议程做出贡献，并支持生物经济演变。在ReSBio下，七个研究流程被组织在并行运行的工作包(WP)中。WP1将邀请政策制定者、行业利益相关者、科学家和工程师界定英国可持续发展和弹性背景下的模型背景和目标，并从用户角度定义模型功能、指标、边界和案例研究。在WP1模型功能规范的基础上，WP2专注于以用户为导向的架构的开源模型开发，并集成了可持续发展评估、生物地球化学模型和优化模型。WP3扩展了WP2的工作，通过建立经验数据库和对植物生长子模型进行重新参数化，突出了生物质资源建模和农业生态系统C/N循环模拟。WP4侧重于对有前景的技术和生物炼油系统集成配置的环境和经济性能进行评估。WP5旨在探索在未来环境变化以及人口和经济趋势下，在多个时间段内进行具有代表性的英国案例研究的战略设计。WP6将在与英国相关的具有代表性的海外案例研究中改编和应用所开发的模式。为了确保ReSBio的影响，WP7致力于研究成果综合和项目传播。ReSBio将有助于了解生物质和转化技术在未来变化下对英国生物可再生价值链的研究价值，并确定未来几十年英国生物可再生能源系统的可持续和弹性设计。ReSBio将对未来英国基础设施转型战略和生物经济中的生物可再生潜力产生新的见解。

Driven by a range of environmental challenges e.g. climate change, energy and material insecurity, a transition from the current fossil-based to a future bio-based economy is expected to evolve progressively and bring a post-petroleum era. The UK government has set out transition policies and strategies to adapt to and mitigate future environmental change and biorenewable carbon resources will play a significant role to meet UK 2050 greenhouse gas reduction targets and support national adaptation efforts. The current EU bioeconomy is estimated to be worth around 2 trillion euros and a wide range of bio-products generated from biomass resources bring great potential. Unlike other renewable sources e.g. tidal or wind energy, biomass provides flexible options to overcome supply instability and un-predictability by deriving thermal and electrical energy on demand and offering potential for transport fuel or bio-chemical generation. Resource assessment shows that the UK biomass could meet almost half of domestic energy needs by 2050 without compromising land use. Biomass-derived value-added chemicals also represent a significant market; with current annual turnover of £60 billion, the UK chemical sector is described as the 'heart of the green economy development'. Such plethora of bio-renewable products can be converted efficiently and sustainably via well-designed integrated biorefinery systems. However, human use of and impacts on the biosphere are now exceeding the multiple environmental limits. Thus the future biorenewable deployment calls for an quantitative transition modelling tool bringing resilience and sustainability thinking approach in biorenewable system design to increase the overall capacity for tackling environmental stresses or socio-economic changes over the coming decades.This project aims to develop an open-source biorenewable system model from user-perspectives and provide insights into sustainable design of the future biorenewable systems, which best adapt to and mitigate future changes, contribute to UK sustainability and resilience agenda and support bioeconomy evolution. Under ReSBio, seven research streams are organized in work packages (WP) that run in parallel.WP1 will engage policy-makers, industrial stakeholders, scientists and engineers to scope the model context and objectives under UK sustainability and resilience context and define the model functions, indicators, boundaries, and case studies from user perspectives. Building on WP1 model functional specifications, WP2 focuses on the open-source model development with the user-oriented architecture and integrating sustainability evaluation, biogeochemistry models and optimisation model. WP3 expands the WP2 work and highlights the biomass resource modelling and agro-ecosystem C/N cycle simulation by building empirical database and re-parameterising the plant growth sub-model. WP4 focuses on the environmental and economic performance evaluation of the promising technologies and the biorefinery system integration configurations. WP5 aims to explore strategic design of representative UK case studies over multiple time periods under future environmental changes and demographic and economic trends. WP6 will adapt and apply the developed model in representative overseas case studies which are of relevance to the UK. To ensure ReSBio impacts, WP7 is dedicated to research output synthesis and project dissemination. ReSBio will help to understand the research merit of biomass and conversion technologies for UK biorenewable value chains under future changes and identify the sustainable and resilient design for UK biorenewables systems over next decades. ReSBio will generate new insights into the biorenewable potential in future UK infrastructure transition strategies and bio-economy.