Resilience of National Transport Networks to Flood-induced Bridge Failures

连接英国城市地区的交通网络的中断——使商品和服务在城市之间流动——对人们的安全和经济产生了重大影响。最近的极端天气事件暴露了该网络对洪水破坏的脆弱性，并对洪水期间的应急服务提出了挑战，导致了直接的经济影响，对社区造成了长期破坏，并对依赖交通网络完整性的其他基础设施服务造成了连锁破坏。许多策略性环线在兴建时并没有任何特别的防洪标准，而且使用频率也超过了设计规格。一个特殊的问题，也是本研究的重点，是桥梁的脆弱性。2009年，由于29座桥梁的倒塌或严重损坏，坎布里亚地区遭受了300万英镑的维修和更换费用，然而，经济和社会成本要大得多（例如，增加的旅行时间估计使企业每周损失高达200万英镑）。了解与桥梁失效或有限使用能力相关的风险是国家洪水恢复能力评估和气候变化风险评估中确定的关键优先事项。虽然监测和结构分析可以帮助识别容易发生故障的桥梁，但也有必要了解它们的故障对更广泛的交通网络的影响，以便基于风险做出决策，并优先考虑有限的资金用于维护和增强国家的复原力。该奖学金提案将通过开发一种新的国家和更详细的区域评估模型来解决这一至关重要的优先事项，以评估河流高流量导致的桥梁损坏。通过与主要利益相关者合作，将共同设计区域和国家模式，使这些组织能够独立使用该模式来支持其决策。这项工作通过解决两个主题为LWEC愿景做出贡献：(1)英国城市系统作为一个相互关联的城市系统；(2)网络的环境风险以及对国家层面失败的潜在和影响的理解。此外，它通过深入研究复杂基础设施的强大功能，支持EPSRC的“弹性国家”繁荣成果。奖学金也将为我的学术生涯提供一个跳板，加快我的学术生涯，形成一个独立的研究方向。这项工作将在纽卡斯尔大学进行，那里有RCUK资助的基础设施和洪水开创性研究的多样化投资组合，为该奖学金提供理想的研究环境。借调到领先的国际研究机构将提供更广阔的视野，并建立我的合作者网络。

Disruption to the transport network that connects the UK's urban areas - enabling the flows of good and services between them - has significant implications for people's safety and the economy. Recent extreme weather events have exposed the vulnerability of this network to flood damage and challenged emergency services during floods, leading to direct economic impacts, long-term disruption to communities, and cascading disruption to other infrastructure services that rely on the integrity of the transport network. Many of the strategic links have been built without any particular flooding protection criteria, and their frequency of use has outstripped their design specification.A particular problem, and focus of this research, is the vulnerability of bridges. In 2009 the Cumbria region suffered £3m in repair and replacement costs due to the collapse or severe damage of 29 bridges, however the economic and societal costs were significantly larger (e.g. the increased travel time was estimated to cost businesses as much as £2m per week). Understanding the risks associated with the failure or limited serviceability of bridges is a key priority identified in the National Flood Resilience Review and in the Climate Change Risk Assessment. Whilst monitoring and structural analysis can help identify bridges that are susceptible to failure, it is also necessary to understand the implications of their failure on the wider transport network to enable risk-based decision-making and prioritisation of limited funds for maintenance and enhancing national resilience.This fellowship proposal will address this crucial priority, through the development of a novel national, and more detailed regional, assessment model for bridge failures from high river flows. By working with key stakeholders the regional and national model will be co-designed to enable it to be used independently by these organisations to support their decision-making. The work contributes to the LWEC vision by addressing two themes: (1) UK cities system as a system of interconnected cities: (2) environmental risk to networks and understanding of the potential and implications of failure at national level. Moreover, it supports the EPSRC 'Resilient Nation' Prosperity Outcome by delve into robust functioning of complex infrastructures.The fellowship will also provide the springboard to accelerate my academic career and develop an independent research direction. The work will be conducted at Newcastle University, where there is a diverse portfolio of RCUK funded pioneering research on infrastructure and flooding, providing the ideal research environment for this fellowship. Secondments to leading international research institutions will provide a broader perspective and build my network of collaborators.