Co-creating visions and pathways for integrated urban heat systems

改造供热系统是英国的当务之急。作为英国政府的独立顾问，气候变化委员会表示，如果我们要从根本上减少供暖产生的碳排放，实现我们的国家和国际气候变化目标，就需要立即采取行动。除了缓解气候变化的迫切需要之外，燃料匮乏影响了英国11%的家庭；面对不断上涨的能源价格，我们需要找到提供负担得起的供暖的方法。由于气候变暖和热舒适需求的增加，未来几年对制冷的需求也可能大幅上升，这将增加能源使用和碳排放。城市可以提供改造供热系统的关键。大约80%的英国人生活在城市地区。从以化石燃料为基础的供热转向负担得起的低碳系统，有许多分散的技术选择，包括热泵和生物质炉等家用技术，利用可再生能源和废热源提供热量的网络，以及在燃气网中用氢替代天然气。以前的城市供热系统建模集中在理解这些技术类型中的一种的潜在吸收，并且经常假设会有一个“系统建筑师”。在现实中，将需要综合的技术组合，并且该系统将包含多个决策者。我的研究将有助于将这种复杂性纳入可用于探索各种热系统情景的模型中。什么样的技术组合最有利于城市的多方利益相关者？如果我们想要减少燃料贫困，我们应该在哪个城市投资？许多决策者——包括地方当局、天然气和电力网络运营商以及中央政府——现在如何做出决定，以确保我们未来30年的供暖和制冷需求得到满足？通过这次合作，我将开发框架、工具和模型来帮助回答这些问题。研究结果将为长期能源规划提供信息，这是我们城市供热系统的根本转变所需要的。通过将复杂科学的方法应用于供热系统（通过考虑不同子系统之间的相互作用，例如住房和能源），考虑未来30年供暖和制冷需求演变的空间多样性（应对气候变化和人口增长等驱动因素），并探索城市内不同技术选择的整合(一些技术可能集中运行，其他技术可能在家庭层面；它们可能因不同的燃料类型（如电力、天然气或直接提供热量）而有所不同，这项工作将使城市利益相关者能够做出有效、知情和前瞻性的决策。本研究中开发的方法和工具将应用于两个英国案例研究城市，以共同产生未来城市能源系统的愿景（例如，在城市中可以部署不同的技术，以及可能带来的好处），并确定实现这些系统的途径（即谁需要采取行动，以及何时采取行动）。这些工具本身将与利益相关者（如地方当局、能源网络运营商、社区和政策制定者）共同创建，以便它们反映这些利益相关者的目标（跨越经济、社会和环境指标）及其决策过程的现实。随后的评估过程将有助于确定这些创新的参与式复杂系统建模方法可以应用于其他能源系统挑战的方法，从而增加本研究的能力，不仅有助于能源系统的学术研究，而且有助于塑造英国及其他地区城市供热系统的未来。

Transforming the heat system is an urgent priority for the UK. The Committee on Climate Change, an independent advisor to the UK Government, has stated that immediate action is required if we are to radically reduce carbon emissions produced by the provision of heat and meet our national and international climate-change targets. In addition to the pressing need to mitigate climate change, fuel poverty affects 11% of households in England; we need to find ways to provide affordable heating in the face of rising energy prices. The demand for cooling is also likely to rise substantially in coming years in response to a warmer climate and growing thermal comfort requirements, which will increase energy use and add to carbon emissions. Cities could provide the key to transforming our heat systems. Around 80% of people in the UK live in urban areas. There are many decentralised technology options available for moving from fossil fuel-based heat provision to affordable low-carbon systems, including household technologies such as heat pumps and biomass stoves, networks that provide heat from renewable and waste heat sources, and the replacement of natural gas with hydrogen in the gas grid. Previous modelling of urban heat systems has focussed on understanding potential uptake of just one of these technology types, and has often assumed that there would be one 'system architect'. In reality, an integrated mix of technologies will be needed, and the system will contain multiple decision-makers. My research will help incorporate this complexity into models that can be used to explore various heat-system scenarios. What mix of technologies would most benefit the multiple stakeholders in cities? Where should we invest in a city if we want to reduce fuel poverty? And how do the many decision-makers involved - including local authorities, gas and electricity networks operators, and central government - make decisions now to ensure that our heating and cooling needs are met for the next 30 years?Through this fellowship I will produce the frameworks, tools and models to help answer these questions. The findings will inform the long-term energy planning that the radical transformation of our urban heat systems will require. By applying the methods of complexity science to the heat system (by considering interactions between different sub-systems, e.g housing and energy), considering the spatial diversity of the evolution of demand for heating and cooling over the next 30 years (in response to drivers such as climate change and population growth), and exploring the integration of different technology options within a city (some technologies may operate centrally, others at the household level; they may vary by different fuel types e.g. electricity, gas or direct provision of heat), this work will empower effective, informed, forward-looking decision-making among city stakeholders.The methods and tools developed in this research will be applied to two UK case-study cities in order to co-produce visions of future urban energy systems (for example, where in a city different technologies could be deployed, and what benefits this might bring) and identify pathways towards those systems (i.e. who would need to act, and by when). The tools themselves will be co-created with stakeholders (such as local authorities, energy network operators, communities and policy-makers) so that they reflect these stakeholders' objectives (across economic, social and environmental metrics) and the reality of their decision-making processes. A subsequent evaluation process will help to identify ways in which these innovative participatory complex-systems modelling approaches could be applied to other energy-system challenges, multiplying the capacity of this research not only to contribute to the academic study of energy systems, but to shape the future of urban heat systems in the UK and beyond.