PREDICTION OF STABILITY OF HIGH RISK DRINKING

大学期间和20岁出头的酗酒现象依然存在 调整问题、事故以及以后的重大风险因素 上瘾。然而，年轻人也表现出很高的缓解率 纵向研究中的酒精问题。的纵向研究 青少年群体认为成年人的角色需求是相关的 缓解酗酒问题。关于儿童的最新研究 酗酒者建议减少主观上的醉酒，增加压力 饮酒时反应减弱可能与罹患 上瘾。 目前的提议将把实验室方法和调查方法结合在一起 高危饮酒者预测重度饮酒慢性化的研究 喝酒。精选的生物、心理和社会网络 将对变量进行评估，以预测重型天气的连续性 大学毕业后饮酒和自然节制的过程。 更好地理解自然变化和适度饮酒习惯， 并有助于及早发现或预测慢性支气管炎 酗酒。 酗酒(每周饮酒少于15杯)大学四年级学生(n=300) 将被招募进行为期三年的预测纵向研究 未来的饮酒习惯。受试者将在以下期间接受初步评估 大学毕业前的学区。评估将 包括饮酒模式和饮酒史、家族史 酗酒、冲动、生活环境类型、社交网络酒精 消费、感知到的酒精影响和感知到的规范。一间实验室 酒精挑战将评估主观醉酒和压力反应 湿透了。未来三年的年度评估将允许 饮酒习惯改变的多变量前瞻性预测。 假设较少的主观陶醉和较大的压力 反应减弱将与持续大量饮酒有关。 改变饮酒方式还应该伴随着生活方式 社会接触者饮酒的变化和减少，以及 关于酒精影响和正常饮酒观念的改变。 前瞻性分析将检查饮酒的变化是否源于或 在社会和职业功能和酒精变化之前 信仰。

Heavy drinking during the college years and in the early twenties remains a significant risk factor for adjustment problems, accidents, and later addiction. Young people, however, also show high rates of remission of alcohol problems in longitudinal research. Longitudinal studies of adolescent populations suggest that adult role demands are associated with remission of drinking problems. Recent studies of children of alcoholics suggest that less subjective intoxication and greater stress response dampening when alcohol is consumed may be related to risk of addiction. The current proposal will combine laboratory and survey methods in a study of high risk drinkers in order to predict chronicity of heavy drinking. Selected biological, psychological, and social network variables will be assessed in order to predict continuity of heavy drinking and natural moderation process after graduation from college. Better understanding of natural change and moderate drinking practices, and facilitate the early detection or prediction of the chronicity of heavy drinking. Heavy drinking (less than 15 drinks per week) college seniors (n = 300) will be recruited for a three-year longitudinal study of the prediction of future drinking habits. Subjects will be assessed initially during the academic quarter prior to graduation from college. Assessment will include measures of drinking patterns and history, family history of alcoholism, impulsivity, type of living setting, social network alcohol consumption, perceived alcohol effects and perceived norms. A laboratory alcohol challenge will assess subjective intoxication and stress response dampening. Annual assessments over the next three years will allow for the multivariate prospective prediction of changes in drinking habits. It is hypothesized that less subjective intoxication and greater stress response dampening will be associated with continuity of heavy drinking. Changes in drinking patterns should also be accompanied by lifestyle changes and reductions in drinking among social contacts, as well as changes in beliefs about alcohol effects and normative drinking. Prospective analyses will examine if changes in drinking result from or predate changes in social and occupational functioning and alcohol beliefs.