Peacekeeping Dividends and Post-conflict Development (Dividends)

该项目在审查一系列广泛成果的维持和平红利、评价最好地利用维持和平的积极外部性的政策、衔接关于短期维持和平和长期建设和平目标的研究以及大体上比较研究和案例研究方面开辟了新天地。它将改变我们对冲突后重建和长期可持续发展的理解。我以前的工作表明，随着非洲产妇保健和教育的改善，联合国维持和平和成功提供安全可以产生更广泛的红利，在此基础上，我将审查维持和平的努力是否具有规模，以及我们是否能够在冲突后重建方面看到更广泛的红利，包括成功的国家建设。我将维持和平红利定义为超出预期或预计基线的结果--与冲突陷阱形成对比，在冲突陷阱中，冲突的代价导致结果仍然低于预期轨迹。该项目开发了一个新的系统的和平之分汇总表，从三个方面比较观察到的结果和预期的结果：1)人类发展；2)政治包容和两性平等；3)政府能力。这一雄心勃勃的研究项目超越了传统的安全目标，将和平与发展的质量与安全的变化联系起来。它使用严格的方法，并考虑到未来的趋势，在联合国维和行动之外发展出可概括的见解。冷战的结束导致了联合国维和任务的激增，而目前联合国安理会五个常任理事国之间的“新”冷战给联合国维和行动留下了更少的空间。我从联合国的证据开始，考察因果机制在多大程度上也适用于参与维和的其他组织，即欧洲联盟和非洲联盟。这些分析结合了对历史数据的比较分析、案例研究和对未来情景的模拟。

This project breaks new ground in examining peacekeeping dividends across a broad set ofoutcomes, evaluating policies that best leverage positive externalities of peacekeeping, bridgingresearch on short-term peacekeeping and long-term peacebuilding objectives and large-Ncomparative and case studies. It will transform our understanding of post-conflict reconstructionand long-term sustainable development. Building on my previous work showing how UnitedNations peacekeeping and the successful provision of security can have broader dividends, withimprovements in maternal health and education in Africa, I will examine if peacekeeping effortsscale and if we can discern broader dividends on post-conflict reconstruction, including successfulstate-building. I conceptualise peacekeeping dividends as outcomes exceeding expected orprojected baselines - contrasting with conflict traps, where the cost of conflict leads to outcomesthat remain below expected trajectories. The project develops an new systematic Peace DividendMatrix, where observed and expected outcomes are compared across three dimensions: 1) humandevelopment; 2) political inclusion and gender equality; 3) governmental capacity. This ambitiousresearch project looks beyond traditional security objectives, relating the quality of peace anddevelopment to changes in security. It develops generalisable insights beyond UN peacekeeping,using rigorous methodologies, and considering future trends. Whereas the end of the Cold War ledto a surge of UN peacekeeping missions, the current "new" Cold War between the permanent fiveUN Security Council members leaves less scope for UN peacekeeping. I start with evidence fromthe UN and examine to what extent the causal mechanisms also apply to other organisationsengaging in peacekeeping, i.e. the European Union and the African Union. The analyses combinecomparative analyses of historical data, case studies, and simulations of future scenarios.