Fiscal Aspects of Constitutional Change

该奖学金将产生在英国宪法改革辩论的财政方面的原创性研究。它将包括税收和支出。税务方面将主要涉及详细的微观经济评估，在可能的情况下使用税收利益微观模拟，评估独立公投后苏格兰不同可能的税收配置的发生率、分布、行政安排和行为反应。这些范围沿着一个财政权力的光谱，从新的现状（2012年苏格兰法案）到完全独立。这项工作将与住区中心联联合进行，并可能与国家经济和社会研究所联合进行。将于2013年9月在苏格兰举行的一次国际座谈会上获得关于税收权力的其他观点。这将考虑与国家可能解体相关的税收和其他财政问题。例如，新的国际边界的存在是否会影响贸易？联合市场，如能源市场，在独立后能否继续存在？研讨会还将比较英国与其他面临解体威胁的国家（如加拿大、西班牙和比利时）的财政问题。它还将从发生分裂的国家-例如爱尔兰-收集证据。在支出方面，研究将考虑社会的哪些部分从现有的支出模式中获益，特别是苏格兰看似慷慨的普遍福利。因此，它将提出这样的问题，如谁受益最多的免费个人护理？一些选民会担心这些福利是否是使用稀缺资源的最佳方式。其他人则会担心，如果苏格兰独立，现有的支出模式能否维持下去。纳税人也会担心他们是否负担得起。这项工作还将与住区中心联联合进行，并涉及对苏格兰年度预算中所列支出模式的详细分析。申请人是苏格兰议会财政委员会的预算顾问。这项研究还将涉及与英国其他地区的公共支出模式进行比较，因为人们对苏格兰看似慷慨的支出分配的看法，在某种程度上影响了对苏格兰宪法改革的态度。最后一项研究将涉及使用基于网络的调查数据，以测试个人对风险的态度以及他们如何权衡现在与未来，是否会影响他们对宪法改革的态度。那些不喜欢风险并担心独立的苏格兰会导致更高税收的人可能会投票反对独立。那些对未来不感兴趣的人可能不愿意参与辩论，或者不太关心苏格兰独立后的经济前景是好是坏的争论。这些行为经济学问题还没有在一个国家的背景下得到解决，比如英国，它可能在不久的将来解体。这项工作将与利亚姆德莱尼，一个年轻的行为经济学家在这一领域的声誉越来越大。 一旦研究成果产生，将作出同等努力，以最大限度地扩大其影响的方式传播这些成果。

This fellowship will produce original research on fiscal aspects of the constitutional change debate in the UK. It will encompass both taxes and spending. The tax side will principally involve a detailed microeconomic assessment, using tax-benefit microsimulation where possible, of the incidence, distribution, administrative arrangements and behavioural responses to the different possible configurations of taxes in Scotland following the independence referendum. These range along a fiscal powers spectrum from the new status quo (the Scotland Act 2012) to full independence. This work will be joint with IFS and possibly with NIESR. Other perspectives on tax powers will be gained from an international colloquium to be held in Scotland in September 2013. This will consider tax and other fiscal issues associated with the possible break-up of states. For example, will the existence of a new international border affect trade? Can joint markets, such as that for energy, continue after independence? The colloquium will also compare fiscal issues in the UK with those in other states under threat of break-up - e.g. Canada, Spain and Belgium. It will also draw evidence from countries where break up has occurred - e.g. Ireland. In relation to spending, the research will consider which parts of society gain from existing spending patterns, particularly Scotland's seemingly generous universal benefits. Thus, it will ask questions such as who benefits most from free personal care? Some voters will be concerned whether these benefits are the best way to use scarce resources. Others will be concerned whether existing patterns of spending can be maintained if Scotland becomes independent. Taxpayers will also be concerned whether they can be afforded. This work will also be joint with IFS and involve detailed analysis of the spending patterns in Scotland as set out in its annual budget. The applicant is the budget adviser to the Finance Committee of the Scottish Parliament. It will also involve comparisons with public spending patterns in other parts of the UK, since atitudes to constitutional change in RUK are somewhat coloured by perceptions of Scotland's seemingly generous spending allocation.The final piece of research will involve using data from a web-based survey to test whether individuals attitudes to risk and how they trade off the present against the future affects how their attitude to constitutional change. Those who dislike risk and are concerned that an independent Scotland would lead to higher taxes may vote against independence. Those who have little interest in the future may not be willing to engage with the debate, or be less concerned with the arguments as to whether Scotland's economic prospects be post-independence might be good or bad. These behavioural economics issues have not been addressed in the context of a state, like the UK, which may break up in the near future. This work will be joint with Liam Delaney, a young behavioural economist with a growing reputation in this field. Once the research results are produced, an equal amount of effort will go in to disseminating them in such a way as to maximise their impact.