Economic Recovery in Post-Conflict Cities: the Role of the Urban Informal Economy

本研究探讨了城市非正规经济（IE）在冲突后城市减贫与和平建设中的作用，以及其为极端贫困人口提供生计和为经济复苏提供平台的范围。本研究将重点放在内战后的城市地区，以及受抗议活动或持续地盘战争影响的城市，探讨冲突的复杂驱动因素及其与工业发展的联系，支持/抑制工业发展的结构性和个体因素，以及地方政府在冲突后经济复苏中的作用。政治动荡或暴力冲突往往以治理的根本失败和经济崩溃为特征。危机的直接影响可能是生计和地方经济的破坏，导致不安全、贫困和饥饿，而这反过来又加剧了不安全和侵犯权利的行为。另一个问题是，在受冲突影响的环境中，地方治理和提供基本服务的失败。在这种情况下，在IE工作是一种重要的应对策略。在世界范围内，城市非正规企业对国内生产总值和就业的贡献是巨大的。即使在政治稳定得到保证的情况下，非正式性仍然是低收入经济体的一个结构性特征，但当地和国际政策只将IE视为一种临时解决方案。因此，冲突后的战略应该促进国际教育，而不是忽视其潜力。该研究的重点是研究呼吁的问题3)，以评估支持城市IE的措施如何减少“暴力和不稳定对最贫困人口的影响，并提高在脆弱和受冲突影响的情况下建设和平、建设国家和更广泛的发展干预措施的有效性”。该研究还解决了问题1)，将冲突作为塑造“脱贫途径和人们贫困经历”的一个因素进行了考察。该研究的假设是，在脆弱和受冲突影响的情况下，城市非正式经济（IE）作为生计来源和中期减贫、和平建设和经济复苏的平台发挥着关键作用，而紧急地方政府和国际救援团体对IE的有效认可对于实现这一作用至关重要。目标是通过三个广泛的问题来探讨的：1。支持城市IE的措施如何提高和平建设与和解的有效性？2. 对工业工业的支持如何创造出摆脱极端贫困的持续途径，并有助于减少贫困和经济增长？在脆弱的城市环境中，地方政府如何支持工业企业的生计并为国家建设做出贡献？冲突后恢复是一个漫长而周期性的过程，该研究基于对具有不同冲突驱动因素的城市的案例研究，包括目前面临动荡的城市和已经从冲突中过渡的城市。五个案例研究城市有不同的冲突经历，包括为国家控制而进行的“制度”斗争（开罗和加德满都），为控制资源而发生的“经济”冲突（蒙罗维亚），“社会/政治”控制（卡拉奇）和“紧急治理”（哈尔格萨）。这项研究很重要，因为它将为冲突后的辩论带来对工业革命动态和经济潜力的理解。研究结果将由所有研究伙伴推广：联合国人居署的生计和重建政策，英联邦地方政府论坛的加强冲突后地方政府战略，应对冲突的和解、培训和和平建设，以及社区的发展机构和声音。因此，这项研究具有在实践中影响发展援助的巨大潜力。

The research explores the role of the urban informal economy (IE) in poverty-reduction and peace-building in post-conflict cities, and its scope to provide livelihoods for the extreme poor and a platform for economic recovery. With a focus on urban areas in post-civil war settings, and on cities affected by protest or on-going turf wars, the research explores the complex drivers of conflict and links to the IE, the structural and individual factors that support/inhibit growth of the IE, and the role of local government (LG) in post-conflict economic recovery. Political upheaval or violent conflict is often characterised by a fundamental failure of governance and economic collapse. An immediate impact of crisis may be the destruction of livelihoods and local economies, leading to insecurity, poverty, and hunger, which in turn exacerbates insecurity and rights violations. A further problem is the failure of local governance and the provision of basic services in conflict-affected settings. Working in the IE is an important coping strategy in such contexts. Worldwide, the contribution of urban informal enterprises to GDP and jobs is substantial. Even when political stability is assured informality remains a structural characteristic of low-income economies, yet local and international policies see the IE only as a temporary solution. Post-conflict strategies should thus foster the IE, rather than dismiss its potential. The research focuses on Question 3) of the Research Call, to assess how measures that support the urban IE may reduce the "impact of violence and instability on the poorest, and increase the effectiveness of peace-building, state-building and wider development interventions in fragile and conflict-affected situations". The research also addresses Question 1), examining conflict as a factor that shapes "pathways into and out of poverty and people's experience of this".The hypothesis of the research is that in fragile and conflict-affected situations, the urban informal economy (IE) plays a pivotal role as a source of livelihoods and a platform for medium-term poverty-reduction, peace-building, and economic recovery, and that effective recognition of the IE by emergent local government and the international relief community is essential for this role to be realised.The Objectives are explored through three broad questions:1. How might measures supporting the urban IE increase the effectiveness of peace-building and reconciliation? 2. How can support for the IE create sustained routes out of extreme poverty and contribute to poverty reduction and economic growth?3. How can local governments in fragile urban contexts support IE livelihoods and contribute to state-building?Post-conflict recovery is a long and cyclical process and the research is based on case studies of cities with different drivers of conflict, those facing current unrest and those which have made a transition from conflict. The five case study cities have different experiences of conflict, including 'institutional' struggles for state control (Cairo and Kathmandu), 'economic' conflict over control of resources (Monrovia), 'social/political' control (Karachi) and 'emergent governance' (Hargeisa). The research is important because it will bring an understanding of the dynamic and economic potential of the IE into post-conflict debates. The findings will be taken forward by all the research partners: UN-Habitat in livelihoods and reconstruction policy, the Commonwealth Local Government Forum in strategies to strengthen post-conflict local government, Responding to Conflict in reconciliation, training, and peace-building, and communities in developing agency and voice. The research thus has significant potential to influence development assistance in practice.