The Economic Impacts on Brexit on the UK, its Regions, its Cities and its Sectors

英国脱欧对英国、各行业、城市和地区的经济影响英国脱欧对英国各行业、地区和城市的经济影响是什么？我们最近的研究结果表明，投票支持脱欧的英国城市和地区在经济上也最依赖欧盟市场的繁荣和生存能力。这是它们不同的部门和贸易构成的结果。不同的行业可能受到不同的影响，不同的行业之间也可能受到不同的影响，这些关系在全国各地也有所不同。一些行业、一些地区和一些城市将比其他行业、地区和城市更敏感，更容易受到英国脱欧可能导致的英欧贸易关系变化的影响，它们的长期竞争力地位将比其他行业、地区和城市更不强劲、更脆弱。这表明，为了使英国脱欧后的协议在全国范围内具有政治、社会和经济上的可持续性，在英国-欧盟国家谈判的背景下，需要非常仔细地考虑这些部门和地区差异。该项目旨在通过使用目前世界上任何地方（以及构建这些数据的人）最详细的区域-国家-国际贸易和竞争数据集，详细检查英国脱欧对英国各行业、地区和城市的可能影响。这两个数据集分别是2016年WIOD世界投入产出数据库和2016年英国区域间贸易数据集，分别由格罗宁根大学和PBL荷兰环境评估机构开发。wid涵盖了43个国家，56个部门和15年的贸易- gdp -需求关系，而欧盟区域间表涵盖了59个部门和240个欧盟地区。定量研究将使我们了解全球价值链在塑造英国区域贸易行为中的作用，即商品和服务在最终被家庭和企业消费之前多次跨越边界。通过这样的全球价值链，英国与欧盟其他国家高度融合，重塑脱欧后英国与欧盟的未来贸易安排也将涉及重新配置这些全球价值链。我们的数据使我们能够检查不同贸易情景的影响，并绘制出英国部门和地区对不同脱欧后情景的敏感性。英国脱欧还将重塑英国各地区的国内和国际竞争力排名，我们的数据再次使我们能够研究可能出现的长期变化。同时，这些变化也将对英国城市和区域发展的政策逻辑和设置的设计和治理产生深远的影响。然而，欧盟凝聚力基金的退出，加上英欧贸易关系的变化，意味着地方地区面临的经济和公共政策环境都将发生重大变化。正在进行的英国权力下放议程，包括三个被下放的国家行政部门以及英国城市地区，将受到不断变化的外部环境的严重影响，我们的项目将确定关键利益相关者认为提供最大可能性的治理，政策和制度选择，以适应新的现实。因此，我们的定量研究也将与基于关键利益相关者参与会议的定性研究同时进行。将组织与城市、地区和国家利益相关者的参与性研讨会，以便为城市、地区和国家机构所感知的英国脱欧后的替代方案进行实证分析。定量和定性方法的结合将使我们能够在各个部门、各个城市和各个地区的关键中尺度上确定英国脱欧的影响。

The Economic Impacts of Brexit on the UK, its Sectors, its Cities and its RegionsWhat are the economic impacts of Brexit on the UK's sectors, regions and cities? The findings from our recent research suggest that the UK's cities and regions which voted for Brexit are also the most economically dependent on EU markets for their prosperity and viability. This is a result of their differing sectoral and trade composition. Different impacts are likely for different sectors, and also different impacts are likely between sectors, and these relationships also differ across the country's regions. Some sectors, some regions and some cities will be more sensitive and susceptible to any changes in UK-EU trade relations which may arise from Brexit than others and their long-run competiveness positions will be less robust and more vulnerable than others. This suggests that these sectoral and regional differences need to be very carefully taken into account in the context of the national UK-EU negotiations in order for the post-Brexit agreements to be politically, socially as well as economically sustainable across the country.This project aims to examine in detail the likely impacts of Brexit on the UK's sectors, regions and cities by using the most detailed regional-national-international trade and competition datasets currently available anywhere in the world (and the people who built these data). These two datasets, are the 2016 WIOD World Input-Output Database and the 2016 UK Interregional Trade Datasets developed respectively by the University of Groningen and by the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. WIOD covers 43 countries, 56 sectors and 15 years of trade-GDP-demand relationships, while the EU Interregional Tables covers 59 sectors and 240 EU regions. The quantitative research will allow us to understand the role in shaping UK regional trade behaviour which is played by global value-chains, whereby goods and services crisscross borders multiple times before being finally consumed by household and firms. The UK is heavily integrated with the rest of the EU via such global value-chains and reshaping the future post-Brexit UK trade arrangements with the EU will also involve reconfiguring these global value-chains. Our data allows us to examine the impacts of different trade scenarios and to map out the sensitivity of UK sectors and regions to different post-Brexit scenarios. Brexit will also reshape the national and international competiveness rankings of the UK regions and again our data allows us to examine the likely long run changes which will arise.At the same time, these changes will also all have profound implications for the design and governance of UK city and regional development policy logic and settings. However, the withdrawal of EU Cohesion Funds, alongside changing UK-EU trade relationships means that both the economic and the public policy environment facing local regions will shift significantly. The ongoing UK devolution agenda at the level of both the three devolved national administrations as well as the English city-regions will be heavily affected by the changing external environment and our project will identify the governance, policy and institutional options which key stakeholders perceive to offer the greatest possibilities for adjusting to the new realities. Our quantitative research will therefore also be undertaken in parallel with qualitative research based on key stakeholder engagement sessions. Participatory workshops with city, regional and national stakeholders will be organised in order to develop alternative post-Brexit scenarios for empirical analysis as perceived by the city and regional as well as national institutions. The mix of quantitative and qualitative approaches will allow us to identity the impacts of Brexit at the crucial meso-levels of the individual sectors, the individual cities and the individual regions.