Centre for the Evaluation of Complexity Across the Nexus (CECAN)

为应对日益认识到的政策和政策执行的复杂性，可持续发展中心在能源、粮食、水和环境相关政策的政策评估方面进行了创新(‘Nexus’)。可持续发展中心开发和推广了政策评估方法，在研究人员、评估实践者、政策制定者和分析人员之间建立了以案例研究为基础的共同成果，并形成了一种灵活、以问题为导向的多机构、多学科中心的运营方式。虽然已经产生了影响很大的工作(见第3部分：迄今的主要产出和影响)，但CECan着手实现的那种转变不可能在30个月内实现。CECAN 2是对以前成果的巩固，是对第一阶段获得的见解和英国面临的新挑战的回应。它将使中心能够开发和实施其创新、知识交流和联合制作，目标是可持续地长期运作。CECAN2是特别及时的，因为一些司机正在巧合，使复杂的适当方法的评估和评估变得更加重要。英国退欧是英国几十年来最复杂的政策和监管变化，对权力下放国家之间可能日益分化的关系产生了相关影响。“大数据”的问题，既有机会，也有风险，很少远离新闻，因此，未来的一个关键挑战是跨政府部门和部门的数据联系，特别是在公私伙伴关系和混合模式的背景下。间接和意想不到的影响正越来越多地在整个Nexus中显现：例如，农村基础设施的下降对环境(更多的汽车运输)和健康/福祉(更多的孤立和孤独)都产生了不利影响。迫切需要采取更大规模和更长期的办法来考虑政策的累积影响和各部门的“连锁反应”。最后，公共部门和私营部门的决策都将受到自动化程度提高的严重影响，目前对治理的影响尚不清楚。目前的政府管理程序不能很好地应对这些多重挑战，迫切需要在其中更多地融入评价和复杂性思维。CECAN2旨在确保与我们接触的从业者和政策制定者配备最好的方法来谈判这一未来的复杂性。为CECAN2设想的工作分为五个方面：1：探索适合复杂性的评估方法在整个政策周期中所能做出的贡献。2：CECAN方法创新实验室：通过探索各种新的和新兴的方法，提供适合复杂性的评估方法的创新。3：真实世界测试和改进适合复杂性的评估方法，以共同产生解决方案，以应对决策和分析中的复杂性带来的评估挑战。4：建设个人和机构的能力，以提供适合复杂性的政策分析5：确保CECAN的未来，使用ESRC的中心过渡资金来深化现有的伙伴关系，并建立新的伙伴关系，以确保为CECAN的工作获得替代和长期资金。

Responding to the increasing recognition of complexity of policy and policy implementation, CECAN produced innovation in policy evaluation for policies relating to energy, food, water and the environment (the 'Nexus'). CECAN developed and extended methods for policy evaluation, established case study based co-production between researchers, evaluation practitioners, policy makers and analysts and evolved an agile, problem driven way of running a multi-institutional, multi-disciplinary centre. While having produced high impact work (see Part 3: Key outputs and impacts to date), the kind of transformation CECAN set out to bring about is not achievable in 30 months. CECAN 2 is a consolidation of previous achievements, and a response to insights gained in the first phase and to new challenges faced by the UK. It will allow the Centre to develop and implement its innovations, knowledge exchange and co-production, with the goal of operating sustainably in the long term. CECAN 2 is particularly timely as a number of drivers are coinciding to make complexity appropriate approaches to appraisal and evaluation ever more vital. Brexit is the most complex policy and regulatory change in the UK for decades, with associated impacts on the potentially increasingly divergent relationship between the devolved nations. The issue of "big data", both its opportunities and risks, is rarely far from the news, so a key future challenge is data linkage across Government departments and sectors, particularly in the context of public-private partnerships and hybrid models. Indirect and unintended effects are increasingly being demonstrated across the Nexus: for example, declines in rural infrastructure have adverse consequences for both the environment (more car transport) and health/wellbeing (more isolation and loneliness). Larger-scale and longer-term approaches are urgently needed to account for the cumulative impact of policies and "knock-on" effects across sectors. Finally, decision-making in both the public and private sector will be severely impacted by increasing automation, with currently unknown consequences for governance. Current Government management processes are not well-equipped to deal with these multiple challenges and urgently need to have evaluation and complexity thinking more embedded within them. CECAN 2 aims to ensure that the practitioners and policy-makers we engage with are equipped with the best methods to negotiate this future complexity . The work envisaged for CECAN 2 is organised into five streams:1: Exploring the contribution that complexity-appropriate evaluation methods can make across the full policy cycle. 2: CECAN Methods Innovation Lab: delivering innovation in complexity-appropriate evaluation methods by exploration of the full range of new and emerging methods.3: Real world testing and refining of complexity-appropriate evaluation methods to co-produce solutions to the evaluation challenges posed by complexity in policy making and analysis.4: Building individual and institutional capacity to deliver complexity-appropriate policy analysis 5: Securing CECAN's future, using ESRC's Centre Transition Funding to deepen existing partnerships and build new ones to secure alternative and long-term funding for CECAN's work.