Migration, Urbanisation and Conflict in Africa (MUCA)

非洲是世界上城市化程度最低的地区，但它的城市增长速度却是地球仪上最快的。虽然部分原因是人口自然增长和以前的农村地区重新分类为城市，但在许多城市，移民是城市化的主要来源。虽然这一趋势有可能促进经济增长和活力，但城市人口的快速增长可能使已经不堪重负的市政当局无法迎头赶上，导致基础设施和服务提供、适当的保有权文件和受管制的定居模式方面的大规模失败。非洲城市居民越来越容易受到人口压力、气候和环境变化影响以及社会、经济和政治危害的影响。很大一部分非洲城市居民可能会定居在贫民窟，财产权和公共服务不确定，他们将在就业机会很少的情况下努力过上体面的生活。这些进程往往还造成日益严重的社会紧张、冲突和暴力。这些动态对可持续发展目标的实现产生了直接和广泛的影响，特别是在满足服务提供需求和为快速增长的城市人口提供体面、高薪工作方面（可持续发展目标8）。这可能会导致纵向不平等加剧（可持续发展目标10），以及在建设可持续城市（可持续发展目标11）和确保和平、正义和法治（可持续发展目标16）方面遇到困难。然而，尽管人们普遍认为，城市可持续性和包容性现在对大多数非洲国家未来的稳定和福祉至关重要，但人们对移民如何加剧当前城市挑战的了解甚少。在当代非洲，城市人口的流入造成了复杂和矛盾的后果，而且往往与“危机叙事”和混乱联系在一起，因为缺乏关于移徙何时以及如何导致冲突的充分知识基础。一些现有的研究探讨了不断变化的农村-城市移民动态，而其他研究则探讨了不同形式的城市暴力的上升-但很少有研究以持续和比较的方式探讨所有三种现象（城市化，移民和暴力冲突）之间的关键相互关系。然而，这些关系只会在人口增长、土地压力增加以及与气候变化有关的流离失所的背景下变得更加重要。MUCA将解决这一差距，提供证据基础，以促进更好地了解移徙与其他因素结合在一起加剧城市冲突的条件，这将通过一个结构化的比较研究设计来实现，该设计涉及九个城市，涵盖三个受移民影响的非常不同的城市，分布在埃塞俄比亚，尼日利亚和乌干达。选择这些国家是为了提供东非和西非的广泛案例以及冲突和人口流动的不同遗留问题。这三种城市类型是：i）大型“灵长类”城市，受到对高价值土地的竞争、高度种族多样性和对非正规经济中有利可图资源的冲突的影响; ii）二级城市，受到重大工业投资的影响。（历史上或最近）出现了新形式的移民和与就业、土地和服务提供方面的紧张局势有关的冲突; ㈢因区域或国际冲突而流离失所者大量涌入的城市。通过探索这些城市中的移民-冲突-城市化关系，在“目标”一节中提出的目标和目的的指导下，MUCA将为发展机构，城市规划者和政策制定者提供证据，以便在未来几年建立一个更加和平的城市非洲。

Africa, the world's least urbanised region, is experiencing the fastest rates of urban growth on the globe. Although partly a consequence of natural population increase and reclassification of previously rural areas as urban, in many cities in-migration constitutes the dominant source of urbanisation. While this trend has potential to contribute to economic growth and dynamism, rapid urban population growth can leave already overstretched municipal authorities unable to catch up, leading to massive failures in infrastructure and service provision, proper tenure documentation, and regulated settlement patterns. Africa's urban dwellers are increasingly vulnerable to risks relating to demographic pressure, impacts of climate and environmental change, and social, economic and political hazards. A significant proportion of Africa's urbanites are likely to settle in slums, with uncertain property rights and public services, and will struggle to secure a decent life in contexts of few employment opportunities. All too often these processes also produce increasing social tension, conflict and violence. These dynamics have direct and wide-ranging ramifications for the delivery of SDGs, most notably in terms of keeping up with service delivery demands and providing decent, well-paid jobs to a rapidly increasing urban population (SDG 8). This potentially translates into increasing vertical inequality (SDG 10), as well as difficulties in building sustainable cities (SDG 11) and ensuring peace, justice and the rule of law (SDG 16).Yet despite the widespread consensus that urban sustainability and inclusion are now crucial for future stability and wellbeing in most African countries, the ways in which migration feeds into current urban challenges is poorly understood. Urban in-migration has complex and contradictory consequences in contemporary Africa, and is all too often associated with 'crisis narratives' and disorder in the absence of an adequate knowledge base on when and how migration leads to conflict. Some existing research has explored changing rural-urban migration dynamics, while other research examines the rise in different forms of urban violence - but very little research has explored the crucial inter-relationships between all three phenomena (urbanisation, migration and violent conflict) in a sustained and comparative way. These relationships are however only like to rise in importance in the context of population growth, increased pressure on land, and displacement related to climate change.MUCA will address this gap, providing an evidence base to facilitate a better understanding of the conditions under which migration combines with other factors to worsen urban conflict - or indeed to alleviate it. This will be pursued through a structured comparative research design that involves nine cities covering three very different kinds of migration-affected cities spread across the three research countries of Ethiopia, Nigeria and Uganda. These countries are chosen to offer a spread of Eastern and Western African cases and different legacies of conflict and population movement. The three city types are i) large 'primate' cities affected by competition over high value land, high ethnic diversity and conflict over lucrative resources in the informal economy; ii) secondary cities affected by major industrial investments (historically or more recently) that are seeing new forms of in-migration and conflict relating to tensions around employment, land, and service delivery; and iii) cities experiencing a major influx of people displaced by regional or international conflicts. Through an exploration of the migration-conflict-urbanisation nexus in these cities, guided by the aims and objectives set out in the section on 'objectives', MUCA will provide evidence for development agencies, urban planners, and policy makers to build a more peaceful urban Africa in the years to come.