Tracking Public Attitudes and Preferences for Post-COVID-19 Labour Migration Policies

公众对外国出生的劳动力的态度是如何改变的，它们如何为支持就业部门和地理区域的国家复苏努力的决策提供信息？民意研究表明，重大事件有时会导致态度的转变，这是理解一个国家社会和经济结构变化的关键。跟踪不同群体和地区的态度构成以及随时间变化的动态，有助于更有效地制定反映公众理解和偏好的移徙和劳动力市场政策。在当前的危机中尤其如此：新冠肺炎已经推动了有关农民工的政治和媒体讨论的改变，尤其是针对那些从事关键职业的人，这些职业现在被认为对中国应对疫情至关重要。农民工在这些职业中占有相当大的份额，而且至关重要的是，许多人的工作被认为是低技能的，在当前的劳动力移民政策下，这些工作不符合工作签证的条件。媒体和政治叙事的转变可能反映--或者实际上导致--公众舆论对所有技能水平的移民劳工的更深层次的转变。然而，我们仍然不知道这一变化的规模有多大，不同地区和不同人口部门的变化是一致的，还是短暂的，还是长期变化的开始。随着疫情后事件的展开，以及政府重新提出修改后的移民法案，解决这些问题对于理解新冠肺炎给英国社会和经济带来的转变至关重要。

How are public attitudes towards foreign-born labour changing, and how can they inform policymaking which supports national recovery efforts across employment sectors and geographic regions? Public opinion research, which shows how major events sometimes contribute to shifts in attitudes, is key for understanding changes in the social and economic fabric of a country. Tracking attitudes' composition across groups and places, as well as dynamics over time, can contribute to more effective migration and labour market policies that reflect public understandings and preferences. This is especially true in the current crisis: COVID-19 has already motivated changes in political and media discussions about migrant workers, especially towards those in key occupations that are now considered fundamental to the country's response to the pandemic. Migrant workers comprise sizable shares of these occupations, and, crucially, many have jobs deemed 'low-skilled' that would not have qualified for work visas under current labour migration policies. Shifts in media and political narratives could reflect-or indeed cause-deeper shifts in public opinion towards migrant labour at all skill levels. However, we still do not know the magnitude of this change, whether it is homogeneous across different regions and sectors of the population, and whether it is short lived or the beginning of a longer-lasting shift. Addressing these questions as post-pandemic events unfold-and as the government has re-introduced its proposed Immigration Bill with modifications-will be crucial for understanding the transformation of the UK's society and economy due to COVID-19.