The Economic Linkages of Covid-19 Across Sectors and Regions in the UK

新冠肺炎大流行对不同国家和地区的影响不同，无论是严重程度还是病例数量。因此，各国内部的不同地区可能需要不同的政策来有效应对新冠肺炎疫情，并将其社会经济影响降至最低。该项目希望了解这些不对称性，并帮助设计能够有效地在区域和部门一级重新启动经济、鼓励复苏和长期更新的政策。为了实现这一目标，我计划使用嵌入量化多部门经济空间框架(包括中间产品贸易)的流行病学模型来研究新冠肺炎的空间动态。我的研究重点是英国的地区，纳入了他们的主要国际贸易伙伴，如周边的欧洲国家、美国和中国。主要的假设是，地点之间的经济联系是疾病的媒介，因此是其传播的另一个非常重要的因素。我想回答的具体问题包括：由于经济互动，这种感染是如何在时间和空间上传播的？大流行如何影响跨区域的部门间流动和供应链联系？应对这一流行病的替代政策会产生什么社会经济影响？这种影响会如何受到地区的产业构成、供应链环节和英国退欧的影响？例如，该项目的结果可以帮助地方企业伙伴关系网络在当前情况下更有效地跨行业分配地方增长基金。

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected different countries and regions differently both in the severity and the number of cases. Therefore, different regions within countries may require different policies to effectively address the Covid-19 epidemic and minimize its socio-economic impact. The project wants to understand these asymmetries and help the design of policies that can be effective in restarting the economy and encouraging recovery and long-run renewal at the regional and sectoral levels. To achieve this goal, I plan to study the spatial dynamics of COVID-19 employing an epidemiological model embedded in a quantitative multi-sector economic spatial framework that includes trade in intermediate products. My research focuses on the regions of the UK and incorporates their main international trade partners such as the surrounding European nations, the US and China. The main hypothesis is that economic links among locations work as vectors for the disease and are, therefore, another very important factor for its spread. Specific questions that I want to answer include the following: How does the infection spread over time and space as a result of economic interactions? How can the pandemic affect inter-sectoral flows and supply-chain links across regions? What can be the socio-economic impacts of alternative policy responses to the pandemic? How can this impact be affected by the industrial composition of regions, the supply-chain links and Brexit? The findings of the project can, for example, help allocate more efficiently the Local Growth Fund across industries by the Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) Network under the current circumstances.