Socio-Emotional Characteristics in Early Childhood and Offending Behaviour in Adolescence

大约80%的惯犯在成年之前与刑事司法系统进行了第一次互动，后期干预的年度成本约为170亿英镑（司法部，2022年5月）。由于与犯罪有关的高昂社会和经济代价，了解使儿童有可能成为未来罪犯的潜在机制是一项政策优先事项。现有文献表明，青少年罪犯在幼儿期往往表现出社会情感发展不良（Murray等人，2010年，Moffitt 2018年），更有可能面临与学校有关的困难（例如旷课，排斥），并进入位于经济贫困地区的学校（DfE，2023年7月）。除了使用社区样本和出生队列的研究外，人们对社会情感发展不良如何影响青少年犯罪行为以及如何调解或缓和这一影响的途径知之甚少。目前还不清楚早期的社会情感困难如何与学校和当地的具体特点相互作用，这项研究将使用司法部-教育部的相关数据，这些数据提供了来自早期阶段基础概况（ESYFP）的关于儿童在学校接收年结束时的社会情感量表的独特信息。和行政犯罪记录从警察国家计算机（PNC）。利用这些数据，我将提供一个详细的细分儿童社会情感发展，并探讨通过它影响青少年犯罪行为的途径。然后，该研究将扩展到一个多层次的模型，以研究学校和地方当局的具体特点如何与儿童的社会情感发展相互作用，以塑造刑事司法的结果。拟议项目的目的和目标与MoJ-DfE（2023）中规定的研究优先事项保持一致，总结如下：研究目标1：评估儿童社会情绪发展与青少年犯罪被警诫或判刑的可能性之间的关系。为每名儿童在入学当年建立社会情绪档案。识别早期社会情绪的特征，研究目的二：研究青少年在早年曾因严重暴力罪行而受到警告或判刑的青少年的情绪发展。确定早期社会情绪困难塑造青少年犯罪行为的潜在中介因素，量化不良社会情绪发展对不良教育结果的影响（学业上的困难及学业成绩差）。量度不良教育成果在早期社会情绪困难与青少年犯罪行为之间的中介作用。研究目的三：评估学校和地方的异质性如何与早期社会情感发展相互作用，以塑造青少年的犯罪行为。记录学校之间的差异（例如，平均关键阶段得分，治理结构等）及本地机构（例如青少年犯罪率、儿童服务的人均开支等）及其对青少年犯罪行为的影响。确定学校和地方的具体特点，这些特点可能导致社会情感发育不良的儿童在青春期从事犯罪行为。确定儿童的早期社会情感特点和其他背景因素至关重要，因为这些特点和因素可能使他们在进入青春期时从事犯罪活动的风险增加。对这些特征以及这些特征影响晚年生活结果的途径进行评估，可以促进制定早期干预措施和战略，以防止儿童在晚年成为罪犯。

Approximately 80 percent of persistent offenders have their first interaction with the criminal justice system before reaching adulthood and the annual cost of late intervention is approximately £17 billion (MoJ, May 2022). Understanding the underlying mechanisms that place children at risk of becoming future offenders is a policy priority due to the high social and economic costs associated with crime. Existing literature shows that young offenders often exhibit poor socio-emotional development in early childhood (Murray et al. 2010, Moffitt 2018), are more likely to face school-related difficulties (e.g. absenteeism, exclusions) and attend schools located in economically disadvantaged areas (DfE, July 2023). Beyond studies using community samples and birth cohorts, little is known about how poor socio-emotional development affects adolescent offending behaviour and the pathways through which this can be mediated or moderated. It also remains unclear how early socio-emotional difficulties interact with specific characteristics of schools and local areas, and how this interaction may result in children's future involvement in crime.This study will use the MoJ-DfE linked data which provides unique information on socio-emotional scales of children at the end of the school reception year from the Early Year Stage Foundation Profile (ESYFP) and administrative criminal records from the Police National Computer (PNC). Using this data, I will provide a detailed breakdown of childhood socio-emotional development and explore the pathways through which this affects adolescent offending behaviour. The study will then extend to a multi-level model to examine how specific characteristics of schools and Local Authorities (LAs) interact with children's socio-emotional development to shape criminal justice outcomes. The aims and objectives of the proposed project are aligned with the research priorities stated in MoJ-DfE (2023) and are summarized as follows:Research Aim 1: To assess the relationship between childhood socio-emotional development and the probability of being cautioned or sentenced for an offence in adolescence.To construct a socio-emotional profile for each child at the year of school reception.To identify characteristics of early socio-emotional development in adolescents who have received cautions or sentences for serious violent crimes early on in their lives.Research Aim 2: To determine potential mediators through which early socio-emotional difficulties shape offending behaviour in adolescence.To quantify the impact of poor socio-emotional development on adverse educational outcomes (school-related difficulties and poor attainment).To measure the mediating effect of adverse educational outcomes on the association between early socio-emotional difficulties and adolescent offending behaviour.Research Aim 3: To evaluate how heterogeneity in schools and LAs interact with early socio-emotional development to shape offending behaviour in adolescence.To document differences across schools (e.g. average Key Stage score, governance structure, etc.) and LAs (e.g. youth crime rates, per capita expenditure on children services, etc.) and their influence on adolescent offending behaviour.To identify specific characteristics of schools and LAs that may lead children with poor socio-emotional development to engage in offending behaviour in adolescence.It is crucial to identify early socio-emotional characteristics of children and other contextual factors, that could place them at increased risk of engaging in criminal activities as they transition into adolescence. Assessing these characteristics and the pathways through which these affect later-life outcomes can facilitate the development of early interventions and strategies to prevent children from becoming offenders later in life.