Determining the risks of mosquito-borne viral zoonoses emerging and spreading from East African forests

许多疾病是通过蚊子传播给人类的。例如，众所周知的和广泛传播的热带疾病黄热病和登革热，是由蚊子埃及伊蚊传播的病毒引起的。这些最初是动物疾病，病毒和蚊子起源于非洲的热带森林。这些森林有丰富的野生动物，也有大量相关的动物饲养蚊子物种和这些蚊子传播的病毒。这些病毒有时会蔓延到人群中，导致通常是动物疾病的局部爆发，例如基孔肯雅和寨卡。随着人类越来越多地侵入这些森林，他们暴露在这些主要感染动物的病毒感染的风险越来越大。由于这些病毒种类繁多（其中一些甚至可能是科学未知的），以及大量可能传播它们的蚊子物种，这些古老的热带非洲森林是人类新疾病的高风险来源。我们的目标是预测这些风险，并确定可能与未来人类疾病有关的病毒或蚊子。这些信息可用于预防新的人类疾病的传播。例如，可以制定监测战略，以检测病毒或蚊子的变化，这些变化是人类出现新疾病的早期预警信号。此外，还可以改变土地的使用方式，例如农业、森林内和森林周围。我们将研究蚊子、病毒、环境（森林和周围村庄）和人类之间的相互作用，以评估可能发生的导致新的人类疾病出现的变化。例如，我们想知道：人类多久进入森林一次，为什么？人口流动性的增加如何影响疾病的传播？病毒通过从动物喂养的蚊子转变为人类喂养的蚊子而感染人类的可能性有多大？通常生活在森林中的蚊子是否会迁移到人类栖息地，从而使人类接触到这些蚊子通常传播给动物的病毒？由于这是一个庞大而复杂的项目，我们将首先有一个规划阶段。这将涉及英国和非洲科学家，社会科学家和参与卫生和政策制定的机构（如世界卫生组织）之间的讨论，使我们能够设计一个综合研究计划，提供预防或尽量减少新的人类疾病所需的信息。

Many diseases are transmitted to humans by mosquitoes. For example, the well-known and widespread tropical diseases yellow fever and dengue fever, are caused by viruses spread by the mosquito, Aedes aegypti. These were originally animal diseases and the viruses and mosquito originated from the tropical forests of Africa. These forests are rich in animal wildlife and also have large numbers of associated animal-feeding mosquito species and the viruses these mosquitoes transmit. These viruses sometimes spill over into human populations resulting in localised outbreaks of what are normally animal diseases e.g. Chikungunya and Zika. As humans encroach increasingly on these forests, they expose themselves to greater and greater risk of being infected by these primarily animal-infecting viruses. Because of this vast array of viruses (some of which may even be unknown to science), and the large number of mosquito species that could spread them, these old tropical African forests are a high risk as a source of new diseases in humans. We aim to predict these risks and to identify viruses or mosquitoes likely to be involved in future human disease. This information can be used to prevent the spread of new human diseases. For example, surveillance strategies could be put in place to detect changes in viruses or mosquitoes that are early warning signs of a new disease emerging in humans. In addition, changes could be made to how land is used, e.g. for agriculture, in and around forests.We will study the interactions that occur between mosquitoes, viruses, the environment (forest and surrounding villages) and humans to assess what changes could occur to result in the emergence of new human diseases. For example, we want to know: How often humans enter the forest and why? How might increased human mobility affect disease spread? What is the potential for viruses to infect humans by switching from animal-feeding into human-feeding mosquitoes? May mosquito species that normally live in the forest move to human habitats so bringing humans into contact with the viruses these mosquitoes normally transmit to animals? Because this will be a large and complex project we will first have a planning phase. This will involve discussions between UK and African scientists, social scientists and agencies involved in health and policy making, e.g. the World Health Organisation, to enable us to design an integrated research plan that will deliver the information needed to prevent or minimize new human disease.