Addressing the complexity of future power system dynamic behaviour

电力系统正在经历前所未有且不断增加的变化，这将使复杂性和不确定性水平提高到前所未有的水平，特别是在英国。确保电力系统的安全、可靠和稳定运行显然是最重要的；不仅适用于“传统”的电力负荷，还适用于电信、供水和卫生、天然气生产和输送以及交通运输。在部分或全部停电的情况下，可能会出现社会不适、经济中断和生命损失。可再生能源（RES）的普及将带来不确定性和复杂性。在英国，数以百万计的间歇性小型能源（不受系统运营商控制）可能会在未来连接到配电系统，而不是像历史上的安排那样，在系统运营商的控制下，连接到输电系统的大型发电机数量要少得多（大约100台左右）。此外，能源储存、电动汽车、热泵、高压直流互连、“智能电网”和相关的控制系统，都将增加系统的复杂性和不可预测性，并可能给系统带来混乱。根据经验和对可再生能源（主要来自太阳能和风能）的依赖，极端天气事件正在增加，这也可能增加与不确定性、复杂性和系统可操作性相关的风险。IEEE和CIGRE等国际知名组织强调电力系统日益复杂，并强调不可预测和不断变化的电力系统动态问题可能危及安全性，并可能增加停电风险。他们还强调了通过加强监测、控制、自动化和特殊保护方案来减少这些风险的潜在改进。预防和减轻停电风险是必不可少的，也是本建议的重点。理解系统动力学变化的本质是解决这种风险的基础。该奖学金的重点是调查、理解、定义和代表以前未遇到的动态现象，这些现象将在未来的电力系统中表现出来，这是由于前面提到的复杂性和不确定性的增加。将开发新的建模、预测和控制工具和方法，以确保加速实现稳定、安全、可靠和具有成本效益的操作，并加强理解。这项研究将在主办机构的世界领先设施中进行原型应用和演示。最终，通过创建模型和工具来提高电力系统的“可操作性”和降低停电风险，主要影响将是最大限度地安全使用可再生能源和有效地使电力系统脱碳。该奖学金将使候选人及其机构成为该领域的国际领导者，这对社会和经济都有影响。

Electrical power systems are undergoing unprecedented and ever-increasing change that will increase the levels of complexity and uncertainty to unprecedented levels, particularly in GB. Ensuring secure, reliable and stable power system operation is clearly paramount; not only for "traditional" electrical loads, but to power telecommunications, water supply and sanitation, natural gas production and delivery, and for transportation. Social discomfort, economic disruption and loss of life can arise in cases of partial or full blackouts. Uncertainty and complexity will arise due to the prevalence of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). In GB, millions of intermittent small energy sources (not under the control of the system operator) may be connected to the electricity distribution system in future, as opposed to historical arrangements, where a much smaller number (100 or so) of large-scale generators, under the control of the system operator, were connected to the transmission system. Furthermore, energy storage, electric vehicles, heat pumps, HVDC interconnectors, "smart grids" and associated control systems, will all act to increase the complexity and unpredictability of, and possibly introduce chaos to, the system. Extreme weather events are on the increase empirically and with reliance on renewable sources (mostly from solar and wind), this could also increase risks associated with uncertainty, complexity and system operability. Internationally respected organisations such as the IEEE and CIGRE emphasise the increasing complexity of power systems and highlight problems with unpredictable and changing power system dynamics as challenges that might compromise security and could increase the risk of blackouts. They also highlight potential improvements in reducing these risks through enhanced monitoring, control, automation and special protection schemes. Prevention and mitigation of the risk of blackouts is essential and the focus of this proposal. Understanding the changing nature of system dynamics is fundamental to addressing this risk.This Fellowship is focused on investigating, understanding, defining and representing previously un-encountered dynamic phenomena that will be manifest in future power systems due to the aforementioned increases in complexity and uncertainty. Novel modelling, prediction and control tools and methodologies will be developed to ensure an accelerated path to stable, secure, reliable and cost-effective operation and enhance understanding. This research will lead to prototype applications and demonstration in the world-leading facilities available at the host institution. Ultimately, the main impact will be maximisation of the secure use of renewables and effective decarbonisation of the electricity system, through creating models and tools to enhance "operability" of electrical power systems and reduce blackout risk. The Fellowship will enable the candidate and his institution to be international leaders in this field, which impacts both society and the economy.