Modelling the dynamics of viral load to reveal mechanisms of protection in COVID-19

COVID-19严重程度的差异可能是由于免疫系统对抗病毒的能力不同。最严重的病例病毒水平最高，这可能会导致如此强烈的免疫反应，从而损害身体。病毒达到高水平可能是因为它生长得非常快，或者因为免疫系统反应不够快或反应方式不对。如果我们知道病毒和免疫反应的水平如何随着时间的推移相互影响，我们才能找出免疫反应的哪些部分是保护性的。我们之前已经证明，我们可以使用来自许多病人的数据来建立一个模型，说明病毒水平和免疫反应是如何相互作用的，然后用它作为一个框架来估计每个人的免疫反应如何有效地控制病毒。这使我们能够确定参与免疫反应的数千个分子中哪些分子实际上负责保护。利用其他研究中已经收集的数据，为COVID-19开发类似的模型，我们将确定保护性免疫反应，从而开发更好的治疗方法和疫苗。

Variation in the severity of COVID-19 may be due to differences in how well the immune system fights the virus. The most severe cases have the highest levels of virus, which may be driving such a strong immune response that it damages the body. The virus may have reached high levels because it grew very fast or because the immune system did not respond fast enough or in the right way. We can only find out which parts of the immune response are protective if we know how the levels of virus and immune response influence each other over time. We have previously shown that we can use data from lots of patients to develop a model of how the levels of virus and the immune response interact, and then use this as a framework to estimate how effectively the immune response of each individual is controlling the virus. This then allows us to identify which of the thousands of molecules involved of the immune response are actually responsible for protection. Using data which has already been collected in other studies to develop a similar model for COVID-19, we will identify the protective immune response, leading better treatments and vaccines.