Modelling Magma Movement: linking indirect observations with dynamic processes

在这次更新中，我将在奖学金第一阶段取得的进展的基础上，通过建立我在开发新方法和应用多学科方法方面的记录，推动火山爆发预测和火山危害评估的阶段性变化，来提供下一代岩浆填充裂缝模型。通讯革命需要在火山危机发生之前和期间做出快速可靠的决策，然而，现有的岩浆地下流动模型仍然不足以做到这一点，最近在新西兰拉帕尔马和目前在冰岛的火山爆发就证明了这一点。我们需要确定不同岩浆流动机制和宿主-岩石变形模式占主导地位的条件，因为这些直接影响地下岩浆的喷发潜力。我们需要认识到岩浆的上升路径和喷发潜力是如何受到岩石学特征、三维几何和传热的影响的。我们需要对暴露的古代火山管道系统的理论、物理和化学认识进行深入研究。最后，我们需要综合模拟、数学和实地实验的见解，并使这些组合模型能够部署，以提高火山爆发预测的准确性和可靠性。我将继续利用我在火山管道系统方面的多学科专业知识，并与来自学术界和政府组织的现有和新的项目合作伙伴密切合作，将火山系统的模拟建模、数学建模、地球物理观测和地质分析结合起来，建立下一代的堤坝和地基模型。我将使用我在第一部分奖学金中建立的最先进的美杜莎实验室，通过创建新颖的3D成像技术结合模拟建模，将岩浆侵入动力学和宿主岩石变形与相关的表面变形结合起来。我将进一步发展我的前沿数学模型，探索岩浆侵入的热、岩石学和几何行为，考虑岩浆流动动力学和宿主岩石变形，从传播到凝固。我将使用实验室技术对我在野外实验中收集的岩石样本进行分析，以了解岩浆流动和宿主岩石变形是如何发生的。我将比较实地、模拟和数学模型的见解，并与火山观测站合作，对它们进行测试和开发，以便将它们整合到地质灾害评估系统中。这些模型将构成国际火山危害评估基础设施的一部分，用于显著减少火山爆发造成的人员和经济损失。

In this renewal I will build on the progress made in the first phase of the fellowship to deliver the next generation of magma-filled fracture models, by building on my track record of developing novel methodologies and applying a multidisciplinary approach to instigate a step change in eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard assessment. The communication revolution requires rapid and reliable decision making in the lead up to and during volcanic crises, however existing models of magma sub-surface flow remain insufficient to allow this, as evidenced by recent eruptions in La Palma, New Zealand and currently in Iceland. We need to identify the conditions under which different magma flow regimes and host-rock deformation modes dominate, because these directly affect the eruption potential of underground magma. We need to recognise how magma ascent pathways and eruption potential are influenced by petrological characteristics, 3D geometry and heat transfer. We need to ground-truth our theoretical, physical and chemical understanding in exposed ancient volcanic plumbing systems. Finally, we need to synthesise insight from analogue, mathematical and field experiments and enable these combined models to be deployed to improve the accuracy and reliability of volcanic eruption forecasts.I will continue to use my multidisciplinary expertise in volcanic plumbing systems and work closely with my existing and new Project Partners from academia and government organisations to integrate analogue modelling, mathematical modelling, geophysical observations and geological analyses of volcanic systems to build the next generation of dyke and sill models. I will use the state-of-the-art Medusa Laboratory I have built in Part One of the fellowship to couple the dynamics of magma intrusion and host-rock deformation with the associated surface distortions by creating novel 3D imaging techniques combined with analogue modelling. I will further develop my cutting-edge mathematical models to explore the thermal, petrological and geometric behaviour of magma intrusions, considering magma flow dynamics and host-rock deformation, from propagation to solidification. I will use laboratory techniques on rock samples already collected in my field experiments to understand how the magma flow and host rock deformation occurred. I will compare field, analogue and mathematical model insights and collaborate with volcano observatories to test and develop them so they can be integrated into geohazard assessment systems. These models will form part of the international infrastructure of volcanic hazard assessment used to significantly minimise the human and economic cost of volcanic eruptions.