Development of an integrated hydro-environmental model for predicting dynamic bacterial fluxes from catchment to coast

近年来，人们越来越关注扩散源污染对河流、河口和沿海水质的影响，特别是对洗浴用水不符合规定的影响。气候变化，特别是在洗澡季节更强烈的风暴，导致洗澡水域越来越不符合规定，例如去年夏天在阿姆罗斯和里尔发生了广泛报道的海滩破坏事件。由专业咨询环境公司定期进行的水文环境影响评估模型研究，通常被认为在模型模拟中存在两个根本缺陷，这可能导致错误的环境影响评估结果。这些缺点将在本项目中得到解决，包括：(i)改进集水区、河流和河口-海岸模型的计算连接，以确保连接边界上的动量和质量守恒，以及（ii）改进确定性模型中的动力学衰减过程表示，以包括盐度、辐照度、浊度和悬浮沉积物水平的影响。因此，这一研究项目的主要目的将是开发和验证相关的水文环境确定性模型，利用与一系列主要变量相关的动态衰减率，预测从集水区到海岸的粪便细菌通量和浓度水平的改善。这一主要目标将通过以下方式实现：(i)建立连接的集水区、河流和河口-海岸模式，以预测从云到海岸的流量和溶质运输过程；（ii）通过开放MI系统将这些模型联系起来，并将这种联系细化到包括动量守恒；（iii）将卡迪夫研究中心的塞文河和里布尔河流域模型扩展到集水区，（iv）根据使用卡迪夫大学理想的集水区-河流-河口物理模型获得的保守示踪测量的比例实验室模型数据开发和测试塞文河模型，(v)对早期实地研究进行详细分析（由主要主管和David Kay教授承担）。Aberystwyth)对浊度和沉积物吸附对塞文河口细菌水平的影响的研究，目的是开发新的配方，将细菌浓度水平与：盐度，辐照度，浊度和悬浮沉积物),（vi）在河流和河口-海岸系统的关联模型中包括细菌腐烂的新公式（以T90值的形式），并调查接收水浓度水平对这些参数的敏感性，以及（vii）简要研究塞文河口（包括塞文河坝）的各种可再生能源结构对接收水粪便细菌水平的影响。特别是在确定新的联系方法和动态衰减率对预测浓度水平的影响方面。这项研究的结果将发表在期刊和会议论文上，并在关于中心有关海洋可再生能源，特别是塞文河口的活动的会谈和讲座中提出。

In recent years there has been growing concern about the impact of diffuse source pollution on river, estuarine and coastal water quality and particularly with regard to non-compliance of bathing waters. Climate change, and particularly more intense storms in the bathing season, has led to increased compliance failure of bathing waters, e.g. last summer saw widely publicised beach failure occurrences at Amroth and Rhyl. Hydro-environmental impact assessment modelling studies, regularly undertaken by specialist consulting environmental companies, are generally regarded as having two fundamental shortcomings in model simulations, which can lead to erromneous environmental impact assessment outcomes. These shortcomings will be addressed in this project and include: (i) improving the computational linking of catchment, river and estuarine-coastal models to ensure momentum and mass conservation across the link boundary, and (ii) improving the kinetic decay process representation in deterministic models, to include the impact of salinity, irradiance, turbidity and suspended sediment levels. The main aim of this research project will therefore be to develop and validate linked hydro-environmental deterministic models to predict improved fluxes and concentration levels of faecal bacterial from catchment to coast, using dynamic decay rates related to a range of primary variables. This main objective will be achieved by: (i) setting up linked catchment, river and estuary-coastal models to predict flow and solute transport processes from Cloud to Coast; (ii) linking these models through an Open MI system and refining the link to include momentum conservation; (iii) extending the Cardiff Research Centre's Severn and Ribble river basin models to include catchments, (iv) developing and testing the Severn model against scaled laboratory model data for conservative tracer measurements, obtained using an idealised catchment-river-estuary physical model at Cardiff University, (v) undertaking a detailed analysis of earlier field studies (undertaken by the main supervisor and Professor David Kay, Aberystwyth) on the impact of turbidity and sediment adsorption on bacterial levels in the Severn estuary, with the aim of developing new formulations linking bacterial concentration levels with: salinity, irradiance, turbidity and suspended sediment), (vi) including the new formulations for bacterial decay (in the form of T90 values) in the linked models for river and estuary-coastal systems and to investigate the sensitivity of the receiving water concentration levels to these parameters, and (vii) studying briefly the effects of various renewable energy structures in the Severn estuary (including the Severn Barrage) on the receiving water faecal bacterial levels, particularly in terms of establishing the impact of the new linking methodology and the dynamic decay rates on the predicted concentration levels. The outcomes from this study will be published in journal and conference papers and presented in talks and lectures on the Centre's activities relating to marine renewable energy and particularly for the Severn estuary.