Modeling Climate, Ecosystem Services and Livelihoods to Identify Resilient Governance Systems

该项目提议成立一个由联合王国、坦桑尼亚、卢旺达、玻利维亚、巴西和美国的合作伙伴组成的联盟，以制定一个研究框架，帮助填补以下方面的知识空白：气候变化将如何影响生态系统服务的提供和监管；这些变化可能如何影响农村生计；以及如何制定治理解决方案，以帮助管理亚马逊和撒哈拉以南非洲国家的这些变化。这项研究将产生新的数据和理解，同时建设发展中国家的能力，以设计和实施关于气候变化对生态系统服务和农村生计的影响的政策相关研究。我们的研究将在四个地点进行，在这些地点，森林和水文系统提供的生态系统服务在生态上高度相互依赖，在大多数情况下是当地乃至国家经济的组成部分，并面临气候变化造成重大破坏的风险。这些遗址包括坦桑尼亚的大鲁阿哈河景观；卢旺达的Nyungwe森林；玻利维亚的Madidi景观；以及巴西马米拉瓦被洪水淹没的(Várzea)森林景观。我们将在这些景观中开发气候、生态系统服务和农村生计的系统动态模型，并将这些模型与在一系列空间和政治尺度上的参与性治理选择评估结合起来。这些模型将承认，监管和供应服务在生态上是相互依赖的，这将允许在不同的管理制度下探索这些生态系统服务的协同作用和权衡。水文系统和流域管理在调节供应服务流动方面发挥的作用是将这些地点联系在一起的共同主线，然而，不同地点的生态和社会政治差异将使研究结果的政策影响广泛适用于亚马逊和撒哈拉以南非洲的其他地点。结合起来，这些网站将使我们能够谈论与渔业、能源、农业、卫生和旅游业有关的各种水-生计互动，以及一系列治理背景。在这些地点，财团现有的数据库和当地关系特别发达，使我们能够以最大的效力和效率进行定量建模和定性研究。通过一系列非正式筹备会议，财团成员和当地合作伙伴将启动参与性进程，以设计一项研究计划，以评估气候变化对生态系统服务提供和当地生计的影响。通过WebEx会议，我们将主办虚拟会议，交流想法，为玻利维亚的财团规划研讨会奠定基础，以整合跨学科团队并确定每个地点的研究需求。研讨会将制定一项研究计划，旨在确定现有数据和能力建设优先事项中的主要知识差距，并估计支持拟议研究所需的资金水平。这笔赠款将使我们能够建立一个框架，以建立一支研究人员队伍，他们具有评估气候变化对生态系统服务和农村生计的影响所需的技能，以便为政策制定者提供信息。通过跨地点合作，该计划将促进直接的南南技能和知识交流，并建立未来联合研究所需的大学关系。加强开展政策相关研究的能力对于指导发展决策、提高地方和国家抵御与气候变化有关的生态、经济和社会冲击的能力至关重要。作为这一拟议计划的结果，我们在发展中国家的合作伙伴及其社区将为适应气候变化和管理生态系统服务以造福农村贫困人口做好更好的准备。

This project proposes to form a consortium of partners from the United Kingdom, Tanzania, Rwanda, Bolivia, Brazil and the United States to develop a research framework that will help fill knowledge gaps related to how climate change will impact provisioning and regulatory ecosystem services; how these changes might affect rural livelihoods; and how governance solutions can be developed to help manage those changes in countries of the Amazon and Sub-Saharan Africa. This research will generate new data and understandings while building developing country capacity to design and implement policy relevant research on the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services and rural livelihoods. Our research will be conducted at four sites where the ecosystem services provided by forests and hydrological systems are highly interdependent ecologically and integral to local and, in most cases, national economies, and are at risk of major disruption from climate change. These sites include the Great Ruaha river landscape in Tanzania; the Nyungwe forest in Rwanda; the Madidi landscape of Bolivia; and the flooded (várzea) forest landscape in Mamiraua, Brazil. We will develop systems dynamic models of climate, ecosystem services and rural livelihoods in these landscapes, and combine these with participatory assessments of governance options, across a range of spatial and political scales. The models will acknowledge that regulatory and provisioning services are ecologically interdependent, which will permit an exploration of synergies and trade-offs in these ecosystem services under various management regimes. The role that hydrological systems and watershed management play in regulating flows of provisioning services is the common thread that binds these sites, however, the ecological and socio-political differences across sites will make the policy implications of research results broadly applicable to other locations in the Amazon and Sub-Saharan Africa. Combined, the sites will allow us to speak to a variety of water-livelihood interactions related to fisheries, energy, agriculture, sanitation and tourism, and to a range of governance contexts. These are sites where the consortium's existing data bases and local relationships are especially well developed, allowing us to conduct both quantitative modeling and qualitative research with the greatest effectiveness and efficiency. Through a series of informal preparatory meetings, consortium members and local partners will initiate a participatory process to design a research program to assess the impact of climate change on ecosystem services provision and local livelihoods. Through WebEx sessions, we will host virtual meetings to exchange ideas that will lay the foundation for a consortium planning workshop in Bolivia to consolidate the interdisciplinary team and identify research needs at each site. The workshop will produce a research program designed to identify major knowledge gaps in existing data and capacity building priorities and estimate the level of funding required to support the proposed research. This grant will enable us to develop a framework for building a cadre of researchers with the skills needed to assess climate change impacts on ecosystem services and rural livelihoods for informing policy makers. By working collaboratively across sites, the program will foster direct south-south exchange of skills and knowledge and build the collegial relationships needed for future joint research. Strengthening capacity to conduct policy relevant research is critical for guiding development decisions that enhance local and national resilience to ecological, economic and social shocks linked to climate change. As a result of this proposed program, our partners and their communities in developing nations will be better prepared to adapt to climate change and to manage ecosystem services for the benefit of the rural poor.