Solar wind connection to regional climate

Lu et al.（2008）已经表明，太阳风动压与北极冬季平流层和对流层的风和温度之间存在强大的关系。这些风和温度变化表明了气候振荡的北环模，它在很大程度上决定了整个欧洲主要的冬季天气模式。低层大气资料中太阳风动压的特征比QBO和11年太阳周期的特征更强，在统计上更可靠，时间尺度表明最可能的联系是动力联系。cliverd et al.（2006）预测刚刚开始的第24太阳活动周期将异常低。最近的观测结果间接地支持了这一观点，这些观测表明，当前的太阳极小期是200年来最低的，第24周期的开始已经推迟，太阳风动压比前一个周期低20%，是原位航天器测量时代最弱的。综合这些证据，我们目前正在进入一个低太阳风动压的时代，以及太阳风动压与不运动有关的证据表明，在2012年至2017年（下一个太阳活动极大期）之间，我们可能会看到英国和斯堪的纳维亚半岛的冬季天气更干燥，风暴更少，而南欧的天气更潮湿。然而，虽然太阳风动压与NAM之间的关系的统计证据非常强（>99%），但物理联系尚不清楚。这项研究的目的是通过观测和模型来探索太阳风动压如何与极地平流层联系起来，从而证实两者之间是否存在物理联系，以及它如何与北方环模强烈相关。

Lu et al. (2008) have shown that there is a robust relationship between solar wind dynamic pressure and the winds and temperatures in the northern polar winter stratosphere and troposphere. These wind and temperature variations are indicative of the Northern Annular Mode of climate oscillation which largely determines the predominant winter weather pattern across Europe. The signature of solar wind dynamic pressure in the lower atmosphere data is stronger and statistically more robust than those associated with either the QBO or the 11-yr solar cycle, and the timescales suggest that the most likely link is a dynamical one. Clilverd et al. (2006) predicted that solar cycle number 24, which is just beginning, would be unusually low. This has since been circumstantially supported by recent observations which show that the current solar minimum is the lowest for 200 years, that the onset of cycle 24 has been delayed, and that the solar wind dynamic pressure is ~20% lower than the previous cycle, the weakest it has been during the era of in-situ spacecraft measurements. Taken together this evidence that we are currently entering an era of low solar wind dynamic pressure, and the evidence that solar wind dynamic pressure is related to the NAM imply that, between 2012 and 2017 (the next solar maximum), we are likely to see drier winter weather with fewer storms in the UK and Scandinavia together with wetter weather in Southern Europe. However, while the statistical evidence for a relationship between the solar wind dynamic pressure and the NAM is very strong (>99%), a physical connection is not understood. The aim of the proposed research is to substantiate whether a physical connection exists by exploring, using both observations and models, just how the solar wind dynamic pressure can connect to the stratosphere in the polar regions, and hence how it can be strongly correlated with the Northern Annular Mode.