Turbulent Oscillator: Intrinsic Eddy-Driven Decadal Variability of the Ocean

我们提出了一个中心假设，即观测到的海洋变率中有相当一部分是内在的，即由海洋内部动力学而不是外部强迫的变化驱动的，其中一些变率可能用气候平均环流的瞬态线性模态来解释，但是大部分--这是我们的第二个假设--很可能是由瞬变的中尺度涡旋驱动和控制的，这些涡旋构成了海洋的天气变化，并与大的-规模流通。本项目的研究策略包括几个步骤。首先，我们将采用先进的，理想化的数值模型在英国的国家超级计算机HECToR和计算一套开拓性的解决方案，明确和非常好地解决涡流和显式模拟大尺度低频变率。所有的解决方案将计算在一个系统的方式，从物理上更简单，更全面，和重点的拟议模拟将是对动力现实主义的涡旋和基本的物理过程。我们的初步结果表明，存在的强大和显着的，与瞬变中尺度涡旋相互作用并受其驱动的内在大尺度低频变率。第二，将系统地分析所有解决方案，分析结果将为建立理论提供基础。在这一点上，我们将受到现有理论思想的指导，也许只是最初的指导。一个非常有用和有效的合作网络将把这个项目与从事观测，建模，和对海洋大尺度低-频率变化和潜在的涡流效应。该项目的智力优势在于解决了人们对海洋和海洋的固有变化知之甚少的问题。中尺度涡旋的相应作用。更广泛的影响是在理解全球气候变率方面，最终目标是实现对全球气候变化的更准确预测。更广泛的背景是潜在的非线性机制可能与全球海洋的其他部分有关。

We put forward the CENTRAL HYPOTHESIS that significant fraction of the observed oceanic variability is intrinsic, that is, driven by the internal dynamics of the ocean rather than by variations of the external forcings.Some of this variability is likely to be explained in terms of the transient linear modes of the climatological mean circulation, but most of it --- and this is our SECOND HYPOTHESIS --- is likely to be driven and controlled by the transient mesoscale eddies that constitute synoptic variability of the ocean and strongly interact with the large-scale circulation.The RESEARCH STRATEGY of this Project consists of several steps.First, we will employ a cutting-edge, idealized numerical model on the UK's national supercomputer HECToR and compute a set of pioneering solutions with explicitly and very well resolved eddies and with explicitly simulated large-scale low-frequency variability.All solutions will be computed in a systematic way, from physically more simple to more comprehensive, and the focus of the proposed modelling will be on the dynamical realism of the eddies and on the underlying fundamental physical processes.Our preliminary results demonstrate presence of the robust and significant, intrinsic large-scale low-frequency variability that interact with and is driven by the transient mesoscale eddies.Second, all solutions will be systematically analysed, and the outcome of this analysis will provide the basis for building a theory. At this point we will be guided, perhaps only initially, by the existing theoretical ideas.A very useful and efficient NETWORK OF COLLABORATIONS will connect this Project with the research groups engaged in observations, modelling, and understanding of the oceanic large-scale low-frequency variability and the underlying eddy effects.The INTELLECTUAL MERIT of this Project is in addressing poorly understood intrinsic variability of the ocean and the corresponding roles of the mesoscale eddies.The BROADER IMPACT is in terms of understanding the global climate variability, with the ultimate goal of acheiving more accurate predictions of the global climate change.The BROADER CONTEXT is that the underlying nonlinear mechanisms are likely to be pertinent to other parts of the global ocean.