HyCRISTAL: Integrating Hydro-Climate Science into Policy Decisions for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Livelihoods in East Africa

东非（EA）是世界上人口增长最快的地区之一，水体周围的人口最多，城市化速度也很快。气候变化加剧了现有的问题，使最贫穷者更加脆弱。HyCRISTAL由EA优先级驱动。EA社区依靠降雨通过农业获得食物。EA的内陆湖泊是雨水灌溉的，提供水，电力和渔业。对于EA不断发展的城市，气候对水资源的影响将影响供水和水处理。因此，HyCRISTAL将在城市和农村开展业务。水资源的变化对环境影响区的气候变化影响至关重要，但对降雨、湖泊、河流和地下水以及极端情况的预测具有很大的不确定性。据观察，"长期降雨"环境影响正在减少;而模型倾向于预测增加（"环境影响气候悖论"），尽管预测并不一致。这种不确定性从根本上限制了气候信息为政策提供信息的效用。因此，HyCRISTAL将充分利用当前的预测来量化用户相关量的不确定性，并提供突破性的研究，以了解和减少目前限制决策的不确定性。HyCRISTAL将与用户合作，提供世界领先的气候研究，量化自然变率的不确定性，气候强迫的不确定性，包括以前未评估的不确定性，以及对这些强迫的不确定性;包括对流和陆气耦合等关键过程的不确定性，这些过程在全球模型中被歪曲。研究将提供对推动预测不确定性的机制的新理解。HyCRISTAL将利用这一信息来了解气候变化信号何时出现的趋势，并提供基于过程的预测专家判断。与政策制定者合作，跨学科研究（水文学，经济学，工程学，社会科学，生态学和决策）将量化农村和城市生计的风险，量化气候影响，并提供必要的工具来使用气候信息进行决策。HyCRISTAL将与合作伙伴合作，在5 - 40年的时间范围内共同进行决策研究，在城市水和政策的两个主要试点中进行展示，以实现适应性气候智能型农村生计。这些涉及非洲环境问题部长级理事会非洲气候变化方案综合框架提出的三个"需要领域"中的两个。HyCRISTAL已经与来自EA的12个合作伙伴进行了合作。HyCRISTAL的顾问委员会将为进一步增加利益相关者的参与提供一个机制。HyCRISTAL将与FCFA全球和区域项目以及CCKE合作，分享方法，工具，用户需求，专业知识和沟通。独特的是，HyCRISTAL将利用新的LVB-HyNEWS，这是一个由非洲领导的联盟，由东非共同体，维多利亚湖流域委员会和国家气象和水文机构管理，非洲气象部长级会议作为观察员。（25个HyCRISTAL Co-Is中有11个是非洲人，其中9个全职在非洲），包括数据收集和有针对性的讲习班和教学。HyCRISTAL将提供影响的证据，新的和深刻的气候科学见解，将远远超过其持续时间。它将通过在其试点项目中应用新的认识，支持关于具有气候抗御能力的基础设施和生计的决定，并提供共同的方法和基础设施经验教训，以促进政策和实现转型变革，从而产生大规模影响。使用用户主导和科学为基础的管理工具相结合，HyCRISTAL将确保最新的物理科学，工程和社会科学产生最大的影响。HyCRISTAL将在FCFA的目标中提供出色的产出;与LVB-HyNEWS的协同作用将增加这些产出，并确保超越HyCRISTAL的寿命。

East Africa (EA) has one of the world's fastest growing populations, with maxima around water-bodies and rapid urbanisation. Climate change is adding to existing problems increasing vulnerability of the poorest. HyCRISTAL is driven by EA priorities. EA communities rely on rainfall for food via agriculture. EA's inland lakes are rain-fed and provide water, power and fisheries. For EA's growing cities, climate impacts on water resources will affect water supply & treatment. HyCRISTAL will therefore operate in both urban & rural contexts. Change in water availability will be critical for climate-change impacts in EA, but projections are highly uncertain for rain, lakes, rivers and groundwater, and for extremes. EA "Long-Rains" are observed to be decreasing; while models tend to predict an increase (the "EA Climate paradox") although predictions are not consistent. This uncertainty provides a fundamental limit on the utility of climate information to inform policy. HyCRISTAL will therefore make best use of current projections to quantify uncertainty in user-relevant quantities and provide ground-breaking research to understand and reduce the uncertainty that currently limits decision making. HyCRISTAL will work with users to deliver world-leading climate research quantifying uncertainty from natural variability, uncertainty from climate forcings including those previously unassessed, and uncertainty in response to these forcings; including uncertainties from key processes such as convection and land-atmopshere coupling that are misrepresented in global models. Research will deliver new understanding of the mechanisms that drive the uncertainty in projections. HyCRISTAL will use this information to understand trends, when climate-change signals will emerge and provide a process-based expert judgement on projections. Working with policy makers, inter-disciplinary research (hydrology, economics, engineering, social science, ecology and decision-making) will quantify risks for rural & urban livelihoods, quantify climate impacts and provide the necessary tools to use climate information for decision making. HyCRISTAL will work with partners to co-produce research for decision-making on a 5-40 year timescale, demonstrated in 2 main pilots for urban water and policies to enable adaptive climate-smart rural livelihoods. These cover two of three "areas of need" from the African Ministerial Council on Environment's Comprehensive Framework of African Climate Change Programmes. HyCRISTAL has already engaged 12 partners from across EA. HyCRISTAL's Advisory Board will provide a mechanism for further growing stakeholder engagement.HyCRISTAL will work with the FCFA global & regional projects and CCKE, sharing methods, tools, user needs, expertise & communication. Uniquely, HyCRISTAL will capitalise on the new LVB-HyNEWS, an African-led consortium, governed by the East African Community, the Lake Victoria Basin Commission and National Meteorological and Hydrological agencies, with the African Ministerial Conference on Meteorology as an observer.HyCRISTAL will build EA capacity directly via collaboration (11 of 25 HyCRISTAL Co-Is are African, with 9 full-time in Africa), including data collection and via targeted workshops and teaching. HyCRISTAL will deliver evidence of impact, with new and deep climate science insights that will far outlast its duration. It will support decisions for climate-resilient infrastructure and livelihoods through application of new understanding in its pilots, with common methodological and infrastructure lessons to promote policy and enable transformational change for impact-at-scale. Using a combination of user-led and science-based management tools, HyCRISTAL will ensure the latest physical science, engineering and social-science yield maximum impacts. HyCRISTAL will deliver outstanding outputs across FCFA's aims; synergies with LVB-HyNEWS will add to these and ensure longevity beyond HyCRISTAL.