Real-time assemsments of wind related damage to electricity infrastructure Societal Theme Sustainability

处理与天气有关的现象的后果是一个古老的问题。我们在预测天气方面取得了巨大的进步，但在将这些预测的输出转化为可操作的信息以帮助我们管理其后果方面，我们进展甚微。2013/14年和2014/15年的冬季风暴表明，我们的配电网络不仅容易受到强风的影响，而且它们的故障对社区造成了严重影响。这个项目将开发和测试一种新的天气预报形式，我们称之为“后果预报”。这些天气预报本质上与传统的天气预报相同，但是，它们对天气的可能影响和后果进行概率评估，而不仅仅是预测天气变量的强度。在这项研究中，将通过热图预测电力故障的数量和位置，以及无电客户的数量。关键词：风暴，弹性，电力基础设施，自然灾害，后果预报，天气预报利益相关者：西部配电，国家电网，能源网络协会，气象局，电力消费者

Dealing with the consequences of weather related phenomena is an age-old problem. We have made great advances in predicting the weather, but we have made little progress in turning the outputs of these forecasts into actionable information that can help us manage their consequences. The winter storms of 2013/14 and 2014/15 demonstrated that our electrical distribution networks are not only vulnerable to strong winds, but their failure severely impacts on communities. This project will develop and test a new form of weather forecasting, which we term "consequence forecasts". These forecasts are essentially the same as traditional weather forecasts, however, they give a probabilistic assessment of the likely impacts and consequences of weather rather than just predicting the intensity of a weather variable. In this research will make forecasts of the number and location of electricity faults, provided via heat maps, and the number of customers without power. Keywords: wind storm, resilience, electricity infrastructure, natural hazard, consequence forecasts, weather forecastsStakeholders:Western Power Distribution, National Grid, Energy Networks Association, Met Office, Electricity Consumers