NEC05883 Ecological implications of increased storm disturbance: will substrate exposure and flooding generate vacant niche space under global change

2015年12月，风暴德斯蒙德(5日至6日)、风暴伊娃(23日)和风暴弗兰克(28日)在坎布里亚、兰开夏和约克郡造成了大范围的洪水和土地滑坡。城乡环境和运输路线受到影响，使泛滥平原草原遭受严重洪涝灾害，并使河谷边和河岸的底土和母质暴露。我们把28号作为科学机会完全可用的日期。我们建议对这三次风暴事件导致的坎布里亚郡暴露和淹没的底物进行采样。这项工作迫在眉睫，因为随着洪水退去和农业管理周期重新开始，土壤条件对风暴的直接影响将反映得更少。此外，土地滑坡和重大侵蚀可能会受到补救，可能会封顶或以其他方式进行美化，从而失去采样机会。在气候变暖的情况下，英国极端的风和降雨正变得更加频繁。因此，洪水和山体滑坡引起的风暴造成的植被干扰将成为城乡环境中更常见的特征。因为我们依赖土壤和植被复合体来提供一系列的自然‘服务’，如作物生产、土壤稳定、防洪和授粉，因此需要了解风暴引起的林隙是否以及如何在短期和长期内自然恢复植被，以及重新定居的物种是否会减少供应，因为新暴露的基质和不断变化的气候为本地、区域或更广泛的物种库中存在的本地和自然植物提供了不合适的条件。确定哪些植物物种受到新的土壤和气候配置的青睐是很重要的，因为新的殖民者可能会为先前存在的植被提供一套不同的“植物学服务”。在坎布里亚，洪水和滑坡影响了高质量和低质量的农业草地、河岸、城市公园和其他城市植被。如果任其自然重新定居，现在和未来的植被空隙是否会提供不同水平和类型的‘植物服务’，或者重新定居失败是否可能发生，因为新的条件代表了相对于当地和地区植物群的新的生态位空间？

In December 2015, Storm Desmond (5-6th), Storm Eva (23rd) and Storm Frank (28th) caused extensive flooding and land slippage across Cumbria, Lancashire and Yorkshire. Urban and rural environments and transport routes were impacted exposing typically freely draining flood-plain grasslands to severe inundation and exposing sub-soils and parent material along valley sides and river banks. We take the 28th as the date when the science opportunity became fully available. We propose work to sample exposed and flooded substrates in Cumbria resulting from these three storm events. The work is urgent because as flood waters recede and agricultural management cycles restart, soil conditions will be less reflective of the immediate storm impact. Also land slips and major erosion may be subject to remediation and maybe capped or otherwise landscaped thus removing the sampling opportunity.Across the UK extremes of wind and rainfall are becoming more frequent under a warming climate. Storm-induced vegetation disturbance resulting from flooding and land-slip will therefore become a more common feature of urban and rural environments. Because we rely on soil and vegetation complexes for a range of natural 'services' such as crop production, soil stabilisation, flood defence and pollination, knowledge is required about whether and how storm-induced gaps will naturally re-vegetate in the short and longer term, and whether re-colonising species will be in shorter supply because newly exposed substrates and a changing climate, provide unsuitable conditions for native and naturalised plants present in the local, regional or wider species pools. Identifying which plant species are favoured by new configurations of soil and climate is important because new colonists may provide a different suite of 'botanical services' to the pre-existing vegetation. In Cumbria flooding and land-slip have impacted high and lower quality agricultural grassland, river bank, municipal parkland and other urban vegetation. If left to re-colonise naturally would present and future vegetation gaps provide different levels and types of 'botanical service' or is re-colonisation failure likely to occur because new conditions represent new niche space with respect to the local and regional flora?