Reducing the economic impact of volcanic activity to aviation (OPEN)

2010年Eyjafjallajokull喷发给航空业造成了巨大的经济损失(11亿GB)，随后对全球经济的影响估计为50亿美元。当时，英国气象局的伦敦火山灰咨询中心(VAAC)定期发布公告，告知该行业火山灰云的可能位置以及应该避免飞行的地方。随着喷发(和随后的中断)的继续，最初的避免所有火山灰的政策被修改，允许在某些条件下飞行。随后，当格里姆斯沃恩火山在2011年发生更大规模的喷发时，这一点，加上预测和监测方面的其他改进，意味着干扰要小得多，经济影响也减少了。尽管有了这些改进，但在火山灰监测、预报和火山灰活动期间的空域管理方面仍然存在一些问题。再次喷发影响欧洲领空的可能性很高：冰岛平均每五年经历一次重大事件，意大利和北非的火山也有可能造成破坏。在一些区域(如北太平洋、澳大拉西亚)，火山灰导致航班经常中断，与火山灰云的相遇仍然频繁(2009年全球报告了9次)。由于预测和监测火山灰云的不确定性，该行业继续求助于研究界，寻求进一步了解火山灰对飞机的影响，以及如何在业务上改进建模和观测。自2010年以来，一些由国家火山灰研究中心资助的财团一直在进行世界领先的研究，以改进火山灰云的观测和建模。例如，布里斯托尔正在领导这个纯粹可信的计划，其目的是改善对自然灾害中不确定性的处理，并在利益相关者和科学家之间建立更好的沟通。在可信范围内，使用概率预测和数据插入来改进模型预测已显示出在灰分预测方面的显著改进。开发现场和遥感监测仪器以补充卫星观测也很重要，如英国激光雷达网络、宙斯机载仪器和气象局研究飞机。举行了一些非正式工作组，以启动研究人员和航空业之间的讨论，这些工作组强调需要改进两个工作组之间的知识转让方式。这些一次性会议表明，学术界对应该如何提供数据的看法，例如如何表示预测中的不确定性，与负责运营的人预期的截然不同。该研究金将为期三年，将把研究人员、航空业和政策制定者聚集在一起，以确保火山喷发期间的决策得到研究界可获得的相关数据的支持。该项目将分几个阶段进行，首先对航空业面临的数据差距进行初步评估，确定最关键的差距，并认识到如何将研究成果转化为填补这些差距。研究人员和行业将通过定期的利益相关者研讨会聚集在一起讨论想法，并将开发一种可以向行业提供数据的标准化方法。向航空公司、机场和其他运营商提供这些信息将有助于加强前瞻性规划，减少对乘客的干扰，确保飞机可用性，改变航线，使更多航班即使在空域某些区域存在火山灰的情况下也可以继续飞行，并减少改道航班造成的燃料浪费。即使是空中交通中断的小幅下降也可能带来巨大的经济效益(例如，在Eyja期间，航空公司估计每天损失4亿美元)。

The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull resulted in large economic loses for the aviation industry (£1.1bn) and the subsequent impacts on the global economy were estimated at US$5bn. At the time, the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) at the UK Met Office produced regular bulletins to inform the industry of the likely location of the ash cloud and where flight should be avoided. As the eruption (and subsequent disruption) continued, the original avoid all ash policy was amended to allow flight under certain conditions. Subsequently when the larger eruption of Grimsvotn occurred in 2011 this, along with other improvements in forecasting and monitoring meant that disruption was much less and the economic impact was reduced. Despite these improvements there still remains a number of issues regarding ash monitoring, forecasting and management of airspace during ash events. The likelihood of another eruption affecting European airspace is high: on average, Iceland experiences one major event every five years and the volcanoes of Italy and N. Africa also have the potential to cause disruption. In some regions (e.g. N. Pacific, Australasia) ash causes regular disruption to flights and encounters with ash clouds still occur frequently (nine reported globally in 2009). As a result of the uncertainty in forecasting and monitoring ash clouds, the industry is continuing to turn to the research community to seek further understanding of the effects of ash on aircraft and how to apply improvements in modelling and observations operationally. Since 2010, a number of NERC funded consortia have been undertaking world-leading research into improving observations and modelling of volcanic ash clouds. Bristol for example are leading the PURE-CREDIBLE program whose aims are to improve handling of uncertainty in natural hazards and to develop better communications between stakeholders and scientists. Within CREDIBLE, the use of probabilistic forecasting and data insertion to improve model predictions has shown significant improvements in ash forecasting. Developments of in-situ and remote sensing monitoring instruments to supplement satellite observations such as the UK lidar network, the ZEUS airborne instrument and the Met Office research aircraft are also important. A number of informal working groups have been held to initiate discussion between the researchers and the aviation industry, which have highlighted the need for improvements in how knowledge is transferred between the two groups. These one-off meetings have demonstrated that the academic perception of how data should be offered, such as how uncertainty in forecasts is represented, is very different from that expected by those responsible for operations. The fellowship will take place over a three year period and will bring together researchers, the aviation industry and policymakers to ensure decision making during volcanic eruptions is supported by accessible and relevant data from the research community. The project will take place in a number of stages, beginning with an initial assessment of the data gaps facing the aviation industry, identification of the most critical gaps and recognising how research outputs can be translated to fill these gaps. Researchers and industry will be brought together to discuss ideas through regular stakeholder workshops and a standardised method in which data can be provided to the industry will be developed. The provision of this information to airlines, airports and other operators will allow for enhanced forward planning reducing disruption to passengers, securing aircraft availability, re-routing so more flights can go ahead even where ash is present in some regions of airspace and a reduction in wasted fuel from diverted flights. Even a small % decrease in disruption to air traffic could have large economic benefits (e.g. airlines lost an estimated $400m/day during Eyja).