Understanding ecostytem stocks and tipping points in UK blanket peatlands (short form: Peatland Tipping Points)

该项目的目的是将英国泥炭地作为一个案例系统，以了解气候变化与土地利用和管理变化（以及其他驱动因素，如大气沉积）的综合影响如何触发提供生态系统服务的临界点。该项目将特别考虑水质、气候缓解和文化服务（包括生物多样性、娱乐、旅游和地方感）的临界点。然后，该研究将评估避免这些临界点与达到它们的经济、社会和文化价值，我们将利用这些见解为管理和政策提供信息，以增强自然系统对未来突变的适应能力。作为最广泛和最了解的泥炭地栖息地，我们专注于毯状沼泽，这是英国最大的单一碳储量。该项目将产生三个主题的研究成果：1。触发因素：该研究将考虑气候、土地利用和管理的变化如何可能引发地层制泥炭地向退化状态的政权转变。它将考虑可能影响这些变化是否也会在空间和时间上触发生态系统服务提供的临界点的生物物理和社会因素的范围。在可能的情况下，我们将识别可能表明系统正在走向临界点的早期预警。价值：该研究将评估覆盖式泥炭地在提供气候调节、水质和文化服务（包括生物多样性）方面达到临界点可能产生的生态、经济、社会和文化影响，并为决策者提供全面的证据，指导他们决定是否、在何处以及如何恢复这些栖息地，以避免特定生态系统服务的临界点3。适应性管理：与利益相关者密切合作，研究将考虑不同形式的泥炭地恢复如何将泥炭地从目前的退化状态转移到理想的新稳定状态，这种状态可以在未来气候变化下适应性地维持泥炭地提供的生态系统服务。这些项目将与世界自然保护联盟英国泥炭地项目（英国泥炭地法典的所有者）合作，探索私人投资的机会，结合现有的农业环境计划，以适应性地管理和避免泥炭地生态系统服务的临界点。这些主题的研究成果将为政策和实践提供一系列好处：*英国地毯式泥炭地生态系统服务临界点的证据，可以帮助优先考虑政策措施，以防止达到关键临界点。建议将包括可通过农村发展计划、泥炭地行动（苏格兰）和英国泥炭地法典激励的实际恢复和其他管理方案，以及针对最有可能发生临界点的系统和地点的激励和措施的空间定位。*从避免未来经济成本和社会影响的角度来看，可用于为泥炭地恢复投资提供经济案例的证据。第三部门组织和从业者将拥有早期预警指标，可以轻松有效地用于识别和避免即将到来的临界点*证据，以更好地阐明和量化泥炭地恢复的好处，以延迟和/或避免多种生态系统服务的临界点，作为泥炭地恢复投资的商业案例的一部分，英国泥炭地法规和自然资本委员会

The aim of this project is to use UK peatlands as a case system in which to understand how the combined effects of climate change and changes in land use and management (and other drivers, such as atmospheric deposition) may trigger tipping points in the provision ecosystem services. The project will specifically consider tipping points for water quality, climate mitigation and cultural services including biodiversity, recreation, tourism and sense of place. The research will then assess the economic, social and cultural value of avoiding these tipping points versus reaching them, and we will use these insights to inform management and policy to enhance the resilience of natural systems to abrupt changes in future. As the most extensive and well-understood peatland habitat, we focus on blanket bogs, which are the UK's single largest carbon stock. The project will produce research findings in three themes: 1. Triggers: the research will consider how changes in climate, land use and management might trigger regime shifts in in blanket peatlands to degraded states. It will consider the range of biophysical and social factors that may influence whether these shifts also trigger tipping points in the provision of ecosystem services over space and time. Where possible, we will identify early warnings that may indicate systems are heading towards tipping points2. Values: the research will assess the likely ecological, economic, social and cultural impacts of reaching tipping points in the provision of climate regulation, water quality and cultural services (including biodiversity) in blanket peatlands, and provide decision-makers with holistic evidence to guide decisions about whether, where and how to restore these habitats to avoid tipping points for specific ecosystem services3. Adaptive management: working closely with stakeholders, the research will consider how different forms of peatland restoration might move blanket peatlands from current degraded states to desirable new stable states that can adaptively sustain the provision of ecosystem services from peatlands under future climate change. Working in collaboration with the IUCN UK Peatland Programme, the owners of the UK Peatland Code, the projects will explore opportunities for private investment combined with existing agri-environment scheme to adaptively manage and avoid tipping points in peatland ecosystem services.Research findings from each of these themes will provide a range of benefits for policy and practice:* Evidence of ecosystem service tipping points in UK blanket peatlands that can help prioritise policy measures to prevent key tipping points being reached. Recommendations will include practical restoration and other management options that could be incentivised via Rural Development Programmes , Peatland Action (in Scotland) and the UK Peatland Code, and spatial targeting of incentives and measures to systems and locations where tipping points are most likely to occur* Evidence that could be used to inform an economic case for investment in peatland restoration, both in terms of avoiding future economic costs and social impacts* Policy-makers, third sector organisations and practitioners will have early warning indicators that can be easily and effectively used to identify and avoid imminent tipping points* Evidence to better articulate and quantify the benefits of peatland restoration for delaying and/or avoiding tipping points for multiple ecosystem services as part of the business case for investment in peatland restoration, for UK Peatland Code & Natural Capital Committee