UK Climate During The Common Era

古气候资料提供了研究和归因自然和人为强迫气候变率所需的定量信息和背景。如果我们的社会要适当地应对未来气候变化的挑战，了解英国过去的气候变化是至关重要的。只有有了这些信息，才有可能制定有效的政策，并批判性地评估日益成为英国气候政策基础的地球系统模型的性能。目前，特定于代理的限制严重限制了这些岛屿可靠的温度或降水重建的数量。对于全新世晚期（<2kya）气候的数值可验证重建尤其如此。值得注意的是，尽管古气候学有着悠久的传统，但我们并没有确切地确定极端季节的频率，也没有确切地确定罗马、中世纪或“小冰河期”的温度和降水水平；重要的是，我们不能因此与最近的气候进行比较。因此，政策制定者、研究人员和公众被迫依赖于可信度较低的重建或基于轶事证据的过时的、未经校准的低频记录。这对于现代数值分析和强有力的循证决策都是完全不合适的。我们新的，但经过严格测试的方法，是基于稳定的碳和氧同位素分析的精确年代的橡树年轮。这些数据能够以高度的数值精度捕捉过去的气候变化（温度和降水）。因此，我们可以为英国和其他代表性不足的温带中纬度地区解决这一研究差距。该项目将开发2000年夏季温度和降水的数值可验证重建，具有确定的置信区间。这些数据是研究界迫切需要的，并将被纳入国家和大陆尺度的古气候合成物中，从而增强其区域相关性和重建技能。我们将提供定量参考气候学，这将标志着英国古气候学的一个阶段性变化，从依赖开创性但过时的研究（例如Lamb 1966），转向对过去气候的新的数值和严格限制的理解。

Palaeoclimatic data provide the quantitative information and context required for the study and attribution of natural- and anthropogenic-forced climatic variability. If our society is to appropriately address the future challenges of climate change, it is of vital importance that we know how the climate of the United Kingdom (UK) has varied in the past. Only with this information will it be possible to formulate effective policy and critically evaluate the performance of the Earth system models that increasingly underpin UK climate policy.Currently proxy-specific limitations severely constrain the number of reliable temperature or precipitation reconstructions for these islands. This is especially true of numerically verifiable reconstructions of late Holocene (<2kya) climate. Remarkably, despite a long established tradition of palaeoclimatology, we have not established, with any confidence, the frequency of seasonal extremes, or indeed the levels of temperature and precipitation of the Roman, Mediaeval, or "Little Ice Age" periods; and importantly, we cannot therefore make comparisons with recent climate. As a consequence, policy makers, researchers and the public are forced to rely upon lower-confidence reconstructions or outdated, uncalibrated low-frequency records based upon anecdotal evidence. This is wholly inappropriate for both modern numerical analyses and robust evidence-based decision making.Our new, but rigorously tested method, is based upon the stable carbon and oxygen isotope analysis of precisely-dated oak tree-rings. These data are capable of capturing past climatic variability (both temperature and precipitation) with a high degree of numerical accuracy. We can therefore address this research gap for the UK and other under-represented, temperate mid-latitude regions.This project will develop 2000 year numerically verifiable reconstructions of summer temperature and precipitation, with defined confidence intervals. Such data are urgently required by the research community and will be incorporated into national and continental-scale palaeoclimate composites, enhancing their regional relevance and reconstructive skill. We will deliver a quantitative reference climatology that will mark a step-change in UK palaeoclimatology, moving from reliance upon seminal, but outdated research (e.g. Lamb 1966), to a new numerical and tightly constrained understanding of past climate.