Developing an Urban Heat Resilience Plan for Bristol - priorities for tackling heat vulnerability to protect health and reduce harm

在英国，气候变化正在导致气温上升和极端高温事件的发生，给社会带来多重风险，特别是那些最脆弱的人。影响包括与高温有关的死亡人数增加和工作场所生产率下降。减少这些影响的方法包括调整建筑物，通过绿地减少城市热岛，以及更好地为热浪制定医疗规划。为了成功地建立复原力，需要详细了解原因以及风险如何在空间上变化；这可以通过开发热脆弱性指数(HVI)来实现，该指数说明了人和基础设施在哪里以及为什么面临最大的风险。HVI开发过程中的复杂性，以及所需数据的某些稀缺性，导致HVI受到限制。一般来说，这项工作是由学术或行业专家完成的。该项目是布里斯托尔市议会(BCC)和廷德尔中心的夏洛特·布朗之间的合作；其主要目标是为布里斯托尔制定HVI和随后的热弹性计划(HRP)。这将建立在研究人员以前工作的基础上，简化和精简开发HVI的过程，使地方当局等非专家更容易获得它。最后，嵌入式研究人员将利用日常接触和具体的参与活动，充分了解和定义地方当局在城市高温风险领域的角色和需求。HVI将纳入多个已知的导致热风险的因素：城市热岛、建筑特征和社会因素。将使用地理信息系统软件对这些风险进行描述、量化和绘制地图，从而产生可视化的辅助工具，使人们能够了解风险的变化。1.为了解城市热岛效应，将整理室外温度数据、土地利用和土地覆盖特征。由于布里斯托尔缺乏空间密集的气温数据，这些特征将与预定义的统计模型一起使用，以产生空间密集的合成气温数据。2.已知可增加或减少过热可能性的建筑物特征，例如楼龄、朝向、建筑类型，将被用来分析建筑环境带来的风险。3.将使用改变人类易受高温风险影响的指标，如年龄、既有疾病、贫困程度等。所有因素将在不同的空间尺度上进行平均并绘制地图。然后，可以确定和分析风险的空间模式和热点。将使用正常化和排名方法来量化组合风险。这将在一份热脆弱性报告中加以总结，该报告强调了这些地区最脆弱的位置和最突出的热风险原因。热压力是一个复杂的问题，涉及多个政策领域，影响着交通、能源和规划等领域。因此，委员会内部的责任落在一系列部门身上。在研究过程中，将利用焦点小组与这些团队接触和合作。这将确保研究涵盖所有相关方面，并旨在满足最广泛的需求。在HVI完成后，重点小组将再次用于共同制定HRP。这种共同开发研究的方法既利用了学术知识，也利用了理事会内部在政策和实际执行方面的专门知识。HRP将通过确定几个适应计划以及实施路径，指导布里斯托尔在长期和短期内建立耐热能力。HVI和HRP随后将广泛传播到BCC以外的地方，以最大限度地利用它们。按计划，这两项产出将纳入相关政策和战略计划，并将予以更新。最后，将向学术受众传播成果，强调成果，并反思这一进程和地方当局的作用。

In the UK climate change is resulting in increases in temperature and the occurrence of extreme heat events, causing multiple risks for society, particularly those most vulnerable. Impacts include increases in heat-related deaths and decreased workplace productivity. Approaches to reducing these impacts include adaptation of buildings, reducing the Urban Heat Island through green space and better medical planning for heatwaves. To successfully build resilience, a detailed understanding of the causes and how the risks vary spatially is required; this can be achieved by the development of a Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) which illustrates where and why, people and infrastructure are most at risk. Complexities in the development process of HVI's, and scarcity in some of the data required, has resulted in HVI's being limited. Generally, this work is performed by academic or industry experts. This project is a collaboration between Bristol City Council (BCC) and Charlotte Brown from the Tyndall Centre; its primary aim is to develop a HVI and a subsequent Heat Resilience Plan (HRP) for Bristol. This will build on previous work by the researcher to simplify and streamline the process of developing a HVI to make it more accessible to non-experts such as local authorities. Finally, the embedded researcher will utilise the day to day contact and specific engagement events, to fully understand and define local authorities' roles and needs in the space of urban heat risk. The HVI will incorporate multiple factors known to contribute to heat risk: Urban Heat Island, building characteristics and social factors. These will be described, quantified and mapped using GIS software, producing visual aids to enable variation in risks to be understood. 1. To understand the effect of the Urban Heat Island, outdoor temperature data, land use and land cover characteristics will be collated. Due to a lack of spatially dense air temperature data for Bristol, these characteristics will be used with pre-defined statistical models to produce spatially dense synthetic air temperature data. 2. Buildings characteristics known to increase or decrease their likelihood of overheating such as age, orientation, construction type will be used to analyse risks posed by the built environment. 3. Indicators which alter human vulnerability to heat risk, such as age, pre-existing diseases, measures of poverty, will be used. All factors will be averaged over various spatial scales and mapped. Spatial patterns and hot spots of risk can then be identified and analysed. Normalisation and ranking methods will be used to quantify the combined risk. This will be summarised in a heat vulnerability report highlighting the most vulnerable locations and the most prominent causes of heat risk in these areas. Heat stress is a complex issue which cuts across a number of policy areas impacting sectors such as transport, energy, and planning. Therefore, responsibility within the council falls across a range of departments. Focus groups will be used to engage with and work with these teams during the research process. This will ensure the research covers all relevant aspects and is designed to meet the widest possible needs. After the HVI is complete focus groups will again be used to co-develop a HRP. This approach to co-developing research utilises both academic knowledge as well as expertise on policy and practical implementation within the council. The HRP will guide Bristol to building heat resilience in the long and short term, by identifying several adaptation plans, with pathways to implementation. The HVI and HRP will then be widely disseminated beyond BCC to maximise their use. Both outputs are scheduled to feed into relevant policy and strategy plans due for renewal. Finally, the results will be disseminated to an academic audience highlighting results as well as reflecting on the process, and the role of local authorities.