Improving MOdelling approaches to assess climate change-related THresholds and Ecological Range SHIfts in the Earth's Peatland ecosystems (MOTHERSHIP)

泥炭地形成于潮湿的环境中，植物每年积累的有机物质没有完全降解。这意味着，随着时间的推移，部分降解的有机物积累为泥炭，锁定了大量的碳。我们称这些地区为“碳汇”，通过这个过程，泥炭地缓和了地球的气候。如果精心管理，它们是我们陆地上最富碳的生态系统。不幸的是，由于管理不善，它们是目前陆地二氧化碳排放最密集的来源，与燃烧化石燃料一样加剧了气候变化。泥炭地被破坏的主要方式是排水，这降低了地下水位。这改变了泥炭地的功能，因此，这些地区从碳汇转变为碳源。在世界各地，10-15%的泥炭地受到排水的影响，并被用作耕地，生产林和放牧。在英国和更广泛的欧洲，如此多的泥炭地已经改变，超过50%的前泥炭积累栖息地已经失去。作为减少全球排放的努力的一部分，欧洲各国政府已投入大量资金用于泥炭地恢复工作，但目前尚不清楚这些努力是否会在气候变化的情况下取得成功，特别是全球气温上升和降雨模式的变化。在这个项目中，我们将调查退化的泥炭地是否与天然泥炭地不同，它们对气候变化的反应。使用整个欧洲气候梯度的站点，我们将研究几年来天气变化对天然和扰动泥炭地温室气体排放的影响。使用区域到全球尺度的模型来模拟到2100年的未来天气，我们将利用我们的新信息来实现更好的政策决策，以可持续地管理泥炭地。这将通过以下方式实现：首先，我们将使用欧洲44个微气象站和数千个卫星（地球观测）数据点的测量结果，确定气候和管理的差异如何影响泥炭地的功能。卫星数据将使我们能够了解比实地数据大得多的景观尺度上的过程。我们还将使用卫星数据来确定15个示范泥炭地相对于气候驱动因素的物理上下运动，因为这是泥炭地水位自我调节的重要机制。然后，我们将对这15个景观中的细尺度水流进行建模，以估计气候、植被和水流如何在泥炭地中相互作用。其次，使用上述观测和模型，我们将开发和测试一个泥炭地版本的区域到全球尺度的模型：联合英国陆地环境模拟器（JULES）。朱尔斯可以模拟在地球仪气候变化下我们的环境会发生什么，但目前无法处理泥炭地。最后，通过新的JULES-PEAT模型，我们将能够预测英国和欧洲泥炭地在气候变化和当前土地利用下的行为，以及应该采取什么策略来最大限度地减少未来的碳损失。我们将与我们的项目合作伙伴一起制定这些战略的情景，并举办一系列国际研讨会，将新的JULES-PEAT模型与其他全球气候模型进行比较，以促进更好地预测气候变化对泥炭地的影响，并为泥炭土找到最佳的未来管理解决方案，以缓解气候变化。与英国/欧盟政策联系的合作伙伴合作，这将为未来的泥炭地政策和管理提供坚实的数据。

Peatlands form in wet environments where the organic matter built up by plants every year is not fully degraded. This means that, over time, partly degraded organic matter accumulates as peat locking away huge quantities of carbon. We call such areas 'carbon sinks' and through this process, peatlands moderate the Earth's climate. When carefully managed they are our most carbon-rich ecosystems on land. Unfortunately, due to poor management, they are currently our most intensive source of carbon dioxide emissions from land, amplifying climate change in the same way as burning fossil fuels. The primary means by which peatlands are damaged is drainage, which lowers the water table. This changes how peatlands function, and as a consequence, such areas switch from carbon sinks to carbon sources. Around the world, 10-15% of all peatlands have been impacted by drainage, and use as cropland, production forests, and grazing. In the UK and more widely across Europe, so many peatlands have been altered that >50% of former peat accumulating habitat has been lost. As part of the effort to reduce global emissions, governments across Europe have invested significant sums in peatland restoration efforts, however it is unclear whether these efforts will be successful in the light of climate change, particularly increasing global temperature and changes to rainfall patterns. In this project, we will investigate whether degraded peatlands differ from natural peatlands in the way they react to climate change. Using sites across the European climate gradient, we will examine what effect variations in weather over several years have on GHG emissions from natural and disturbed peatlands. Using a regional-to-global scale model to simulate future weather to 2100, we will use our new information to enable better policy decisions to sustainably manage peatlands. This will be achieved in the following way: First, we will determine how differences in climate and management affect how peatlands function, using measurements from 44 micrometeorological stations and thousands of satellite (Earth Observation) data points across Europe. The satellite data will enable us to understand processes on a far larger landscape scale than the field data. We will also use satellite data to determine the physical up-and-down movement of 15 exemplar peatlands relative to climatic drivers, as this is an important mechanism by which peatland water tables self-regulate. We will then model fine-scale water flows across these 15 landscapes to estimate how climate, vegetation and water flows interact in peatlands. Second, using the above observations and models we will develop and test a peatland version of a regional- to global-scale model: the Joint UK Land-Environment Simulator (JULES). JULES can model what happens to our environment under climatic change across the globe, but currently is unable to deal with peatlands. Finally, with the new JULES-PEAT model, we will be able to predict how UK and European peatlands will behave under climate change and current land use, and what strategies should be taken to minimise future carbon losses. We will develop scenarios of such strategies with our project partners and run a series of international workshops to compare the new JULES-PEAT model against other global climate models, in order to advance better global forecasting of climate change effects on peatlands as a whole and to find the best possible future management solutions for peat soils to mitigate climate change. Working with partners with UK/EU policy links, this will provide solid data for future peatland policies and management on the ground.