TowaRds the future Projection and management of the Impact of Climate Change on Bolivian water Supply (TROPICCS)

在玻利维亚，首都拉巴斯的大部分供水是由冰川融化的水提供的。在一年中，当条件干燥和温暖时，冰川往往会融化，因此它们在最需要的时候提供水。然而，由于气候变化，这些冰川正在迅速缩小，它们的减少和可能的完全消失将减少拉巴斯可用于饮用水、农业和水电的水。因此，必须准确了解冰川对供水有多重要，以及冰川径流如何与植被和泥炭地相互作用，特别是在缺乏其他水源的非常干燥的条件下。还有必要建立模型工具，使我们能够预测未来集水区的冰川和水资源将如何变化，因为这些信息可以用来更好地管理和适应未来供水的变化。我们的新项目将结合英国诺森比亚大学最先进的冰川和水文模型的科学家与玻利维亚圣安德烈S大学的玻利维亚冰川学家和水文学家，以及意大利CIMA研究基金会的业务融化模型专家。我们将首先收集集水区的高分辨率卫星数据，通过对卫星图像进行分类来创建地形图，并在集水区的一条冰川上安装一个新的气象站。这些数据将与现有的数据集和卫星衍生产品一起用来运行一个详细的模型，该模型能够以物理方式表示影响集水区可用水量的所有过程，包括冰川融化、地下水、蒸散和高山集水区发生的所有主要水文过程。我们还将在冰川地区运行一个更简单但更快的模型，并比较模型的结果。通过这项工作，该项目将达到以下目标：1.为拉巴斯/埃尔阿尔托供水集水区提供新的冰川和水文数据基线；2.确定冰川融水对供水的贡献及其年际波动的驱动因素，包括干旱期间；3.确定冰川、雪、水文和植被之间的反馈机制在集水径流的大小和季节性中的重要性；4.建立在可操作的水资源建模中充分代表冰川径流所需的模型复杂性。我们的工作结果将发表在同行评议的期刊上，但我们还将为当地利益攸关方(水资源管理人员和政府官员)编写一份西班牙语简报文件，并将在玻利维亚的传播研讨会上介绍。该项目将导致：相关组织之间建立新的伙伴关系；对玻利维亚冰川及其对水供应的重要性有新的了解；以及开发在该地区运作良好的业务模型工具。这将使我们能够申请未来的资金，长期目标是预测整个Cordillera Real的冰川变化及其对未来水供应的影响-从而提供更好地管理玻利维亚水资源所需的信息。这将允许规划额外的集水区蓄水，实施提高用水效率的措施，或实施改进的干旱预报系统，以加强有关水资源的决策。

In Bolivia, a large proportion of the water supply of the capital city, La Paz, is provided by meltwater from glaciers. During the year glaciers tend to melt when conditions are dry and warm, and so they provide water when it is needed most. However, these glaciers are shrinking rapidly due to climate change, and their reduction and possible total disappearance will reduce the water available for La Paz for drinking water, agriculture and hydropower. It is therefore important to understand exactly how important glaciers are for water supplies and how glacier runoff interacts with vegetation and peatlands, especially during very dry conditions when other sources of water are lacking. It is also necessary to build modelling tools that will allow us to predict how the glaciers and water resources from the catchments will change in the future, since this information can be used to better manage and adapt to the future change in water supply.Our new project will combine scientists that work with state-of-the-art glacier and hydrological models from Northumbria University, UK, with Bolivian glaciologists and hydrologists from Universidad Mayor de San Andrés, Bolivia and experts on operational melt models from CIMA Research Foundation in Italy. We will first collect high resolution satellite data for the catchment, create a map of landcover by classifying satellite imagery and install a new weather station on one of the glaciers in the catchment. These data will be used, together with existing datasets and satellite derived products, to run a detailed model that can represent in a physical manner all of the processes that affect the amount of water available for use in the catchment, including from glacier melt, groundwater, evapotranspiration and all the main hydrological processes occurring in high mountain catchments. We will also run a simpler, but faster model over the glacier areas and compare the results of the models. We will then construct a model that can represent the melt of Bolivian glaciers well while remaining efficient enough for use by water managers and for modelling into the future.Through this work, the project will meet the following objectives:1. Provide a new baseline of glaciological and hydrological data for the La Paz/El Alto water supply catchments; 2. Determine the drivers of glacier melt water contribution to water supply and its interannual fluctuations, including during droughts;3. Determine the importance of feedback mechanisms between glaciers, snow, hydrology and vegetation in the magnitude and seasonality of catchment runoff and; 4. Establish the model complexity required to adequately represent glacier runoff in operational water resource modelling.The results of our work will be published in peer-reviewed journals, but we will also write a briefing document in Spanish for local stakeholders (water managers and government officials) which will be presented at a dissemination workshop in Bolivia. The project will lead to: a new partnership between the organisations involved; new knowledge of Bolivian glaciers and their importance to water supplies; and the development of operational modelling tools that work well in the region. This will allow us to apply for future funding with the long-term aim of predicting glacier change over the entire Cordillera Real and its effect on water supplies into the future - thereby providing the information needed to better manage Bolivian water resources. This will allow planning for additional catchment water storage, implementation of water use efficiency measures, or the implementation of improved drought prediction systems to enhance decision making about water resources.