Climate change and the tourism sector: impacts and adaptations at visitor attractions

旅游业是英国经济、社会和文化的重要组成部分。政府在其旅游业复苏计划（2021年6月）中将其描述为“国家资产”，在冠状病毒大流行之前，旅游业约占GDP的10%，雇佣了约10%的劳动力（330万工人），并被强调为英国脱欧后经济发展的核心支柱。尽管旅游业是经济的一个关键部门，也是许多公民生活的一部分，但英国气候变化给旅游业带来的机遇和风险尚未得到系统或持续的研究。作为人类活动的一种形式，至少在英国对天气和大气条件非常敏感，人们对未来气候变化对旅游业可能产生的影响以及必要的适应措施的关注非常有限。最近（2021年6月），气候变化委员会（CCC）每五年为政府准备一次的第三次独立气候变化风险评估（CCRA3）提供证据的技术报告也强调了这一明显的知识差距。这个及时而紧迫的项目的目的是通过调查天气/气候与当前和预测的未来气候条件下景点游客之间的关系来应对这一挑战。对游客和访客的关注是新颖的。到目前为止，在现有的研究中，主要的方法是关注气候变化对游客居住地点的影响（例如沿海地区、历史建筑），而不是天气和气候如何与行为联系起来。作为英国首个此类研究，它将采用2018年发布的英国气候预测（UKCP18）和CCRA3气候期货来预测可能的变化。主要的研究问题是气候变化如何影响游客在景点的模式和行为，以及到2050年及以后，对未来游客经济的可能后果是什么？更具体地说，通过在国民信托机构执行气候变化适应计划的团队中嵌入的工作，它将：1。1 .确定与海岸、乡村和历史遗迹景点（即财产）参观相关的主要气候风险和机会；2 .以个别景点（即物业）的当前天气/气候与游客（人数、消费、停留时间）之间的关系为基准；3 .调查不同类型的吸引力、背景和属性是否会导致关系的变化；利用UKCP18数据，研究在不同的气候情景和假设下，游客可能如何变化；5. 5 .确定景点脆弱性和暴露的性质、程度和空间格局，以及暴露最严重的景点应考虑哪些适应措施；了解个别景点在应对不断变化的游客决策和对游客基础设施可能产生的影响时所面临的挑战。该项目将使用国民信托和苏格兰历史环境组织编制的关于游客的二手数据集，结合气象局的天气/气候数据，通过统计分析和建模来检验目标1-5。本分析中确定的个别物业的个案研究将调查目标6，以期确定由于气候变化而需要对游客基础设施进行的可能改变。景点在激励和塑造旅行中起着关键作用，而对建筑和自然遗产的强调反映了遗产旅游在英国的受欢迎程度和经济价值。2015年，英国的文化、历史和自然资产吸引了1.92亿国内外游客，这些游客的平均消费高于其他领域的游客，对英国GDP的贡献超过1.1%（牛津经济研究院2016 p3）。

Tourism is a vital to UK economy, society and culture. Described by government in its Tourism Recovery Plan (June 2021) as a 'national asset', prior to the Coronavirus pandemic the tourism sector accounted for around 10% of GDP, employed around 10% of the workforce (3.3 million workers), and it was highlighted as a central pillar for post-Brexit economic development. Although a key sector of the economy and a part of many citizens' lives, the opportunities and the risks to tourism from a changing climate in the UK have not been the subject of systematic or sustained research. As a form of human activity, that in the UK at least is highly sensitive to weather and atmospheric conditions, there has been very limited attention to the possible impacts of, and necessary adaptation to, future climate change to the tourism sector. This conspicuous gap in knowledge was also recently (June 2021) highlighted in the technical reports providing evidence for the third independent Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) which the Climate Change Commission (CCC) prepares for government every five years. The aim of this timely and urgent project is to pick up this challenges by investigating the relationship between weather/climate and visitation to attractions under current and predicted future climatic conditions. The focus on visitors and visitation is novel. To date, within existing research the main approach has been to concentrate on the impacts of climate change on the locations that visitors inhabit (e.g. coastal areas, historic buildings) rather than how weather and climate relate to behaviour. As the first study of its type in the UK, it will employ the UK Climate Predictions published in 2018 (UKCP18) and the CCRA3 climate futures to predict possible changes. The main research questions are how may climate change affect visitor patterns and behaviours at attractions, and what are the likely consequences for the future visitor economy to 2050 and beyond? More specifically, through work embedded in the team delivering the Climate Change Adaptation programme at the National Trust, it will: 1. Identify the main climate risks and opportunities associated with visits to attractions (i.e. properties) on the coast, in the countryside and at historic sites;2. Examine the relationship between current weather/climate and visitation (numbers, spend, dwell time) at individual attractions (i.e. properties) as a baseline;3. Investigate whether the relationship varies by different types of attraction, their contexts and attributes;4. Using UKCP18 data, examine how visitation may change under different climate scenarios and assumptions; 5. Establish the nature, extent and spatial pattern of vulnerability and exposure at attractions, and what adaptation responses should be considered for the most exposed;6. Understand the challenges presented for individual attractions in responding to changing visitor decision-making and possible impacts on visitor infrastructure.The project will use secondary datasets compiled by the National Trust and Historic Environment Scotland on visitors to their attractions in combination with weather/climate data from the Met Office to examine objectives 1-5 through statistical analysis and modelling. Case-studies of individual properties identified in this analysis will investigate objective 6, with a view to identifying possible alterations in visitor infrastructure required as a result of climate change. Attractions have a key role in motivating and shaping trips away while the emphasis on built and natural heritage reflects the popularity and financial value of heritage tourism in the UK. In 2015, domestic and international tourists made 192 million trips to the UK's cultural, historic and natural assets, with such visitors spending on average more than those in other segments and contributing over 1.1% to UK GDP (Oxford Economics 2016 p3)