Core principles for integrated models for ecosystem management

人类社会和我们的经济是建立在利用自然世界的基础上的。然而，正如达斯古普塔报告所强调的那样，这些活动已经破坏了我们的环境和野生种群。修复这种破坏并重建我们的社会以可持续地利用自然资源将需要大量投资。重要的是要确保这一努力得到有效的应用，否则我们可能会造成进一步的伤害。然而，自然世界的复杂性使得我们很难预测我们的干预将如何影响它。数学提供了一种描述系统如何随时间变化的语言。如果一个系统可以用数学术语充分准确地描述，就有可能测试它对给定变化的反应。因此，数学模型有可能提供工具，使我们能够设计有效的保护和恢复活动。然而，尽管存在各种各样的数学模型来描述单个的环境、生态和社会经济系统，但描述所有这些方面如何结合在一起的统一模型相对较少。此外，目前还不清楚如何最好地设计这样的模型来支持决策者。这个项目将通过生成模型开发指南来解决这个问题，从而为管理决策提供信息。这将通过评估在构建现有的大量已发表模型时做出的决策来实现，以确定它们如何影响这些模型作为决策工具的总体有效性。从这个分析中，我们将综合一组通用的模型设计原则，并演示设计决策是如何贯彻到实际结果中的。在此过程中，我们将确定不同研究领域之间的共同建模方法，从而确定整体模型开发的策略。最后，我们将通过开发农业生态系统和河流生态系统管理模型的大纲来演示如何在实践中应用该指南。农业生态系统很大，可能包括整个国家或多个国家。因此，他们的行为在整个系统中差异很大；这提出了一个实质性的建模挑战。此外，决策通常是针对个别农场做出的，而不一定考虑它们将如何影响生态系统的整体健康。开发的模型需要弥合这一差距。河流生态系统支持农业、运输和发电，对洪水管理至关重要。它们也有复杂的空间结构，这受到我们放置它们的许多用途的影响。这种结构对栖息在其中的野生动物群落的健康也起着重要作用。同样，我们管理这些系统的模型需要考虑到地方决策如何影响生态系统的整体健康。

Human society and our economy have been built to make use of the natural world. However, as the Dasgupta report has highlighted these activities have damaged our environment and wild populations. Repairing this damage and rebuilding our society to sustainably make use of natural resources will require significant investment. It is important to ensure that this effort is applied effectively otherwise we may do further harm. However, the complexity of the natural world makes it hard to predict how our interventions will affect it.Mathematics provides a language in which to describe how systems change over time. If a system can be described sufficiently accurately in mathematical terms, it becomes possible to test how it would respond to a given change. Thus, mathematical models have the potential to provide tools that would allow us to design conservation and restoration activities which will be effective. However, while a variety of mathematical models exist for individual environmental, ecological, and socio-economic systems, unified models, which describe how all of these aspects come together are relatively rare. Furthermore, it is not clear how to best go about designing such models to support decision-makers.This project will address this problem by producing a guide to the development of models to inform management decisions. This will be achieved by assessing the decisions made in constructing the existing wealth of published models to determine how they influenced the overall effectiveness of those models as decision-making tools. From this analysis we will synthesize a set of general model design principles and demonstrate how design decisions follow through into practical consequences. In the process we will identify common modelling approaches between different fields of study and, thus, strategies for the development of wholistic models. Finally, we will demonstrate how to apply this guide in practice by developing outlines of models for the management of agricultural ecosystems and river ecosystems. Agricultural ecosystems are large, potentially encompassing an entire country or countries. As a result, their behaviour varies considerably across the system as a whole; this presents a substantial modelling challenge. Furthermore, decisions are typically made for individual farms without necessarily considering how they will affect the overall health of the ecosystem. The model developed needs to bridge this gap.River ecosystems support agriculture, transport and power generation and are essential in flood management. They also have a complex spatial structure which is affected by many of the uses we put them to. This structure also plays an important role in the health of the wildlife communities which inhabit them. Again, our model for the management of these systems need to account for how local decisions influence the overall health of the ecosystem.