POPULATION BIOLOGY AND EVOLUTION OF INFLUENZA A

本建议的目标是通过开发统一的建模框架来提高我们对流感演变和管理的理解。特别是，我们将解决的问题是：(1)给定的毒株和亚型结构以及相关的交叉反应模式如何影响疾病动力学？(2)交叉反应性如何影响病原体进化？(3)应变结构和交叉反应模式如何在进化过程中自我组织，例如形成准物种，这种组织如何反馈影响动力学？(4)这些问题对疫苗接种策略的影响是什么？疫苗接种计划对病毒种群组织的相互影响是什么？

The goals of this proposal are to improve our understanding of both the evolution and management of influenza by developing a unified modeling framework. In particular, the questions we will address are (1) How do given strain and subtype structures, and the associated patterns of cross-reactivity, affect disease dynamics? (2) How does cross-reactivity affect pathogen evolution? (3) How do strain structure and patterns of cross-reactivity self-organize over evolutionary time, for example into quasi-species, and how does this organization feed back to affect dynamics? (4) What are the implications of these issues for vaccination strategies, and what are the reciprocal effects of vaccination programs upon the organization of the viral population?