The threat from space debris in low earth orbit: understanding and mitigating the risk

这一建议实际上是关于近地空间环境的人为污染（该区域在项目呼吁中被称为可接受的应用区域）。60年来，我们一直在向近地轨道发射卫星，很少考虑这些飞行器的最终命运。因此，碎片的数量迅速增加，因此现在碰撞的危险越来越大，而且相当可观。低地球轨道特别拥挤，因为这些是最容易到达的。它们还特别危险，因为这些轨道上的碎片可能以很大的相对速度移动。鉴于此，即使是很小的碎片（一厘米）也可以通过碰撞使航天器失效。随着所谓的“巨型”小型卫星群的发射，今后几年的情况将明显恶化。例如，埃隆·马斯克的Starlink星座被授权将32000颗小型卫星（目前运行卫星数量的16倍）安装到轨道上。减缓依赖于大气阻力，预计在25年内脱离轨道。欧空局/美国航天局估计，轨道上有90万至50万块卫星杀伤碎片（尺寸为1厘米或更大），而且这种情况显然注定会变得更糟。从历史上看，这些都是军事的原始（设计用于导弹预警系统），但在过去几年中，一些较小规模的商业运营商已经出现。从零星的射频测量中得出的轨道参数很差，这意味着目前只有2%的卫星杀伤碎片得到跟踪。然而，光学跟踪技术可以提供明显的优势，比射频：光学观测可以提供准确的轨道，这将导致建立人口目录。我们一直在寻找一种新的方法/技术，它将比RF更便宜，更准确。虽然我们有一系列不同的传感器和光学提供给我们的原型将需要一个高性能的望远镜安装是有效的和真实的时间分析软件的发展，以跟上数据率。在赠款期间，我们将开发和展示技术和原型的能力，并与我们的合作伙伴设计最终的仪器配置是有效的领域。

This proposal is effectively about the artificial pollution of the near earth space environment (this area is named in the project call as an acceptable area for applications). We have been launching satellites mostly into low earth (LEO) orbit for 60 years with little regard for the ultimate fate of these vehicles. Consequently, the level of debris has been rapidly rising so that now there is a growing and appreciable risk of collision. Low earth orbits are particularly congested as these are easiest to reach. They are also particularly dangerous as debris in these orbits can be moving at large relative velocities. Given this even small debris (a cm) can disable a spacecraft through collisions. The situation is due to worsen appreciably over the next few years with the launch of so-called "mega" constellations of small satellites. For example, Elon Musk's Starlink constellation is licensed to install 32000 small satellites (16x the number of currently operational satellites) into orbit. Mitigation relies on atmospheric drag supposedly de-orbiting within 25 years. ESA/NASA estimate there are 0.9M- 0.5M pieces of satellite killing debris (1cm or larger in size) in orbit and this is clearly destined to get much worse.Currently LEO debris are mostly tracked and characterised through radar techniques (RF). Historically these have been military in original (designed for missile early warning systems), but in the last few years a number of smaller scale commercial operators have appeared. Poor orbital parameters derived from sporadic RF measurements means that only 2% of satellite killing debris are currently being tracked. However, optical tracking techniques can offer distinct advantages over the RF: optical observations can give accurate orbits which will lead to a build up of the population catalog. We have been looking at a new methodology/techniques that will be cheaper and more accurate than the RF. While we have a range of difference sensors and optics available to us the prototype will need a high performance telescope mount to be effective and the development of real time analysis software to keep up with the data rate.Over the grant period we will develop and demonstrate the capability of technique and prototype and with our partners devise the final instrumental configuration to be effective in the field.