MODEL TRANSITION SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

描述：本项目将开发用于评估影响的软件工具 关于分析、监督和 控制传染病。大多数分析仅考虑敏感性， 模型参数值的变化，而忽略模型的假设如何形成 (e.g.确定性与随机性、ODE与离散个体）影响结果 和伴随的决定。本研究将：（1）进行需求分析 分析，以指定仿真引擎和功能，以纳入 软件. (2)开发和测试软件原型，以评估 建议的方法的可行性。(3)构建、测试和实施 基于原型结果的完整软件包。(4)应用 软件和方法，以证明该方法及其独特的好处， 疾病和监测控制。 第一阶段研究将解决前两个目标;目标三和四将 在第二阶段完成，一旦可行性得到证明。的工艺 该项目的科学创新有望彻底改变我们的 有能力就分析、监督和 控制传染病。 拟议商业应用：不可用

DESCRIPTION: This project will develop software tools for assessing the impacts of model assumptions on decisions regarding the analysis, surveillance, and control of infectious diseases. Most analyses consider sensitivity only to changes in a model's parameter values, and ignore how assumptions of model form (e.g. deterministic vs. stochastic, ODE vs. discrete individual) impact results and concomitant decisions. The research will: (1) Conduct a requirements analysis to specify the simulation engines and functionality to incorporate in the software. (2) Develop and test a software prototype to evaluate feasibility of the proposed approaches. (3) Build, test and implement a complete software package based on results of the prototype. (4) Apply the software and methods to demonstrate the approach and its unique benefits for disease and surveillance control. The Phase I research will address the first two aims; aims three and four will be accomplished in Phase II once feasibility is demonstrated. The technologic and scientific innovations from this project are expected to revolutionize our ability to formulate sound decisions regarding the analysis, surveillance and control of infectious diseases. PROPOSED COMMERCIAL APPLICATION: NOT AVAILABLE