Developing industry-led tools to improve water and flood defence infrastructure through natural capital

近年来，河水泛滥在英国是一个值得注意的问题，预计由于气候变化，它的频率和严重性将会增加。英国气候变化委员会的适应小组委员会强调洪水风险是需要紧急干预的四个关键领域之一。2012年，英国气候变化风险评估(CCRA)估计，到20世纪50年代，英国每年因洪水造成的成本可能会从12亿GB的基线增加到16亿到68亿GB之间，受20世纪50年代影响的人口将从大约900.000人增加到130万到360万人。这项拟议的研究将介入这一具有挑战性的领域，旨在与泰晤士水务合作开发一种新的集水区管理工具，以应对未来保护土地的挑战；其他重要的合作伙伴，如牛津郡的Evenlode Catchment Partnership、Atkins Consulting和Sylva Foundation，将参与其中，以利用在流域内建立有效管理工具所需的广泛专业知识。自然洪水管理(NFM)是一种包含所有技术的方法，旨在通过自然资本方法强调恢复固有的水文和形态过程、特征和特征，提供与径流量和水质有关的重要调节服务，并被强调为一项重要的气候变化适应战略。这些技术包括恢复、增强和改变自然地貌和特征，但排除了与这些自然过程相反或破坏这些自然过程的传统防御工程。该项目还将涉及实施农村可持续排水系统(RSuDS)，以用可持续的系统改善排水系统，减少洪水风险以及农药和化肥造成的污染，使自来水公司有机会实现水质，而不需要使用更多和更昂贵的基础设施来处理已经受到污染的水，例如解决农业造成的扩散污染问题。该项目的目标是多方面的：i)通过建模方法评估在泰晤士河上游流域通过NFM措施可能实现的减少洪水风险的可能性；ii)开发一个基于网络的工具，以评估可以实施NFM和RSuDS措施的洪水和水污染主要风险地区；iii)创建一个市场，在那里土地所有者可以测量其土地提供的生态系统服务，并且服务的受益者将能够与土地所有者签订合同，继续并加强提供这些服务。陆面模型Jules中的分布式水文模拟将用于预测不同的NFM情景对高峰流量减少的影响。将对三种NFM情景进行评估：森林覆盖率增加15%，微型池建设，这两种措施共同应用。这些方案是基于在景观中保留水分的概念，但一方面植树造林通常被建议作为一种减少径流产生的措施，另一方面，微型池塘通常被建议作为NFM措施，专注于在景观中引入小型保留元素。我认为牛津大学的长期生态实验室是发展这一项目的合适地点：正在进行的NaturEtrade项目旨在为欧洲生态肥沃土地的丧失开发一个创新的解决方案，它也将试图连接学术研究和生态系统服务提供政策之间的差距。与不同利益攸关方打交道的这种经验，以及处理数据集、处理图像和开发工具的专门知识，将有助于取得成功的成果。

River flooding has been a notable issue in the UK in recent times and it is projected to increase in frequency and severity because of climate changes. The UK Climate Change Committee's Adaptations Sub Committee has highlighted flood risk as one of four key areas for urgent intervention. The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) in 2012 has estimated that the annual cost to the nation for flooding is likely to increase from the baseline of £1.2 billion to between £1.6 and £6.8 billion by the 2050s with between 1.3 and 3.6 million people affected by the 2050s from the baseline of about 900.000 people.This proposed research will intervene in this challenging field aiming at developing a new 'Catchment Management Tool' in partnership with Thames Water, to face the future challenges in protecting the land; other important partners such as Evenlode Catchment Partnership in Oxfordshire, Atkins Consultancy and the Sylva Foundation will be involved to draw on the wide range of expertise needed to build effective management tool within a catchment.Natural Flood Management (NFM) is a method that comprises all the techniques that aim to emphasize the restoration of innate hydrological and morphological processes, features and characteristics through the natural capital approach, providing important regulating services in relation to both runoff rates and water quality and is highlighted as an important climate change adaption strategy.These techniques include the restoration, enhancement and alteration of natural features and characteristics, but exclude traditional defence engineering that works against or disrupts these natural processes. This project will involve also the implementation of Rural Sustainable Drainage Systems (RSuDS) to improve the drainage with sustainable systems that can reduce the risk of flooding and pollution from pesticides and fertilisers, giving the opportunity for water companies to implement water quality without using further and more expensive infrastructures to treat already polluted waters, such addressing the problem of diffuse pollution from agriculture. The aims of this project are multiple: i) assessment of the possible reduction in flood risk achievable by NFM measures in the Upper Thames basin through a modelling approach, ii) development of a web-based tool to assess the areas at major risk of flooding and water pollution where NFM and RSuDS measures could be implemented, iii) creation of a marketplace where landowners could measure the ecosystem services provided by their land and where the beneficiaries of the services will be able to contract with landowners for the continued and enhanced provision of these.The distributed hydrological modelling in the land surface model JULES will be used to predict the impacts of different NFM scenarios on peak flow reduction. Three NFM scenarios will be evaluated: 15% increase in forest cover, micro-ponds construction, both the measures applied together. These scenarios are based on the concept of retaining water into the landscape, but as on the one hand afforestation is generally proposed as a measure for the reduction of run-off generation, on the other hand, micro-ponds have generally been suggested as NFM measures that focus on the introduction of small retention elements in the landscape.I think the Long-term Ecology Lab at the University of Oxford is the right place to develop this project: the ongoing NaturEtrade project aims at developing an innovative solution for the loss of ecologically rich-land in Europe and it will also try to connect the gap between academic research and policy on ecosystem service provision. This experience in dealing with different stakeholders together with the expertise in dealing with datasets, processing imagery and developing tools will help achieving successful results.