POPULATION BIOLOGY AND EVOLUTION OF INFLUENZA A

该提案的目标是通过开发一个统一的建模框架来提高我们对流感演变和管理的理解。特别是，我们将解决的问题是（1）给定的菌株和亚型结构，以及相关的交叉反应模式，如何影响疾病的动力学？(2)交叉反应如何影响病原体的进化？(3)应变结构和交叉反应模式如何在进化过程中自组织，例如进入准物种，以及这种组织如何反馈影响动态？(4)这些问题对疫苗接种策略有何影响？疫苗接种计划对病毒种群的组织有何相互影响？

The goals of this proposal are to improve our understanding of both the evolution and management of influenza by developing a unified modeling framework. In particular, the questions we will address are (1) How do given strain and subtype structures, and the associated patterns of cross-reactivity, affect disease dynamics? (2) How does cross-reactivity affect pathogen evolution? (3) How do strain structure and patterns of cross-reactivity self-organize over evolutionary time, for example into quasi-species, and how does this organization feed back to affect dynamics? (4) What are the implications of these issues for vaccination strategies, and what are the reciprocal effects of vaccination programs upon the organization of the viral population?