EPSRC - Distributed Ledger Technologies

英国承诺到2050年实现净零排放目标。要做到这一点，就需要对整个能源系统进行社会、技术、经济和环境分析，包括大规模增加风能和太阳能发电。间歇性发电的增加对实现2050年目标至关重要，但对整个能源系统的工程稳定性和经济可持续性构成了重大挑战。该研究项目建立了一个完整的系统模型，捕捉间歇性可再生能源在英国能源系统中的高渗透率的技术经济可持续性。它明确地代表了可再生能源技术和英国电力市场之间的相互作用所产生的不确定性，以及这种不确定性对未来可再生能源发电技术的可持续性的影响。然而，英国目前的政策是让私人资本市场开发更多的风能和太阳能发电能力，现有的研究很少从私人投资者的角度考虑这种不确定性的影响。对资本提供者对不确定性的看法和容忍度进行这种研究，对于确保所需的投资至关重要。因此，本研究计划打算从这个角度考虑电力系统的不确定性。论文将考虑广泛的不确定性，社会，技术，经济和环境的性质。这些不确定性包括发电和存储技术的预期改进以及随之而来的成本降低，以及与天气模式有关的不确定性。政府政策、消费者行为和投资决定也存在不确定性。该研究项目将开发一个透明的定量模型，使有关各方能够了解这些不确定性对发电，排放和批发价格的影响。它将超越现有的研究，还模拟这些不确定性对投资回报和可持续性的影响。模型输入将通过将理论，试验，专家启发和金融市场的数据整合到技术经济模型中，将新方法应用于整个能源系统工程领域。专家启发将包括收集的材料，半结构化采访的行业专业人士谁有经验形成的期望和不确定性评估的风能和太阳能发电机。这些访谈的目的是更清楚地了解哪些不确定性可能是最关键的，这可以用来告知研究人员和政策制定者。它还有一个次要的好处，即可以查明不确定性，以成本效益高的方式减少这些不确定性，以便更容易地持续吸引资本。

Great Britain is committed to achieving net-zero emissions targets by 2050. Doing this requires social, technical, economic and environmental analyses of the whole energy system and including considerable scaling up of wind and solar generation. This increase in intermittent generation is crucial to meeting 2050 targets, but poses major challenges to the engineering stability and economic sustainability of the whole energy system. This research project builds a whole system model capturing the techno-economic sustainability of high penetrations of intermittent renewables in the UK energy system. It explicitly represents uncertainties arising from the interaction between renewable technologies and Great Britain's electricity markets and the impact of this on the sustainability of future renewable generation technologies.There has been previous research into the uncertainties in the electricity system arising from intermittent generation in the electricity system. However, Great Britain's current policy is for private capital markets to develop additional wind and solar generation capacity, and little of the existing research has considered the effect of this uncertainty from the perspective of private investors. Such research, into the perception and tolerance of uncertainty by capital providers, is crucial to ensure the required investment. This research project therefore intends to consider the electricity system's uncertainties from this perspective. The thesis will consider a broad range of uncertainties, social, technical, economic and environmental in nature. These uncertainties include anticipated improvements in generation and storage technologies with accompanying cost reductions, and uncertainties related to weather patterns. There are also uncertainties related to government policy, consumer behaviour and investment decisions. The research project will develop a transparent quantitative model, that allows interested parties to understand the effect of these uncertainties on electricity generation, emissions, and wholesale prices. It will go beyond much of the existing research by also modelling the impact of these uncertainties on investment return and sustainability.The model inputs will apply methods new to the whole energy systems engineering field through integration of data from theory, trials, expert elicitation and financial markets on uncertainties into techno-economic models. The expert elicitation will include material gathered semi-structured interviews of industry professionals who have experience forming expectations and uncertainty assessments for wind and solar generators. These interviews are intended to get a clearer understanding of which uncertainties are likely to be most critical, which can be used to inform researchers and policy-makers. It may also have a secondary benefit in identifying uncertainties which can be cost-effectively mitigated in order to more easily attract capital on an ongoing basis.