Land availability for greenhouse gas removal by afforestation and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS)

为了满足《联合国气候变化框架公约》《巴黎气候协定》将全球平均气温上升控制在远低于2摄氏度的愿望，未来的情景假设大规模使用植树造林和具有碳捕获和封存的生物质能源(BECCS)来消除大气中的二氧化碳。鉴于全球饮食趋势和全球粮食系统效率低下的背景，土地和生物质残留物的可获得性(例如来自收获的废物)是大规模提供这些负排放技术的能力的关键制约因素。在这个直接资助的NERC博士学位中，学生将批判性地评估未来情景中使用的土地使用和残渣流假设。首先，您将批判性地检查共享社会经济路径(SSP)所使用的现有综合评估模型研究中的土地利用情景。下一阶段将利用联合国对粮食和其他动植物产品需求的历史数据和未来预测，对一系列饮食和食品系统效率情景下的土地利用和残渣流进行全球空间分析。在这门课程中，学生将探索如何满足对食物和纤维的需求以及如何将其转化为土地利用的替代方案，这取决于作物产量、消费的肉类类型、肉类生产系统和食品系统内的废物水平等因素。将有机会扩展分析，以考虑经济权衡。

To meet the aspirations of the UNFCCC Paris Climate Agreement to limit increases of global mean temperature to well below 2C, future scenarios assume the large-scale use of afforestation and biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The availability of land and biomass residue streams (e.g. waste material from harvest) are key constraints on the ability to deliver these negative emission technologies at scale, given a context of global dietary trends and the inefficiencies in the global food system. In this directly-funded NERC PhD the student will critically assess the land use and residue stream assumptions used in future scenarios. You will start by critically examining the land-use scenarios from existing integrated assessment model studies used of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The next stage will involve a global spatial analysis of land-use and residue streams under a range of dietary and food system efficiency scenarios, using historical data and future UN projections of demand for food and other plant and animal products. Within this, the student will explore alternative scenarios of how demand for food and fibre is met and how it translates into land-use, which depends on factors such as crop yield, type of meat consumed, meat production systems and levels of waste within the food system. There will be opportunities to extend the analysis to consider economic trade-offs.