Youth Engagement in Young Democracies: Assessing the Patterns, Processes and Impact of Youth Engagement in Ukraine

经济全球化、边缘化和不稳定导致了流动性、大规模抗议和叛乱。青年在维持抗议运动方面发挥着重要作用，是国内流离失所和移徙的核心人口。分析人士指出，这两种动员形式相互依存，对其驱动因素的理论预期也有很大重叠。它们之间的关系已经在宏观层面（De Haas & Sigona 2012）和个体层面（Hirschman 1993）进行了理论化，但关于抗议和移民的文献往往是离散的。本项目以乌克兰为例，批判性地思考在政治危机和冲突加剧的时刻，青年参与、抗议和移民之间的关系。这包括从背景和结构角度分析大规模抗议和移民动员的微观基础，并探索它们之间的动态。是什么激励和动员后共产主义青年参与社会和政治活动？流离失所者如何参与家乡的政治和公民生活？此外，乌克兰内外的青年动员与民主化与和平发展有何关系？我借鉴了有争议的政治（抗议行为）和移民理论的文献。研究青年参与的学者强调了两种同时存在的模式：尽管年轻人比老一辈人更不可能投票（Blais & Dobrzynska 1998; Esser & De Vreese 2007），但他们更有可能加入并成为基层/抗议活动的“核心”（Habermas 1971; Saunders et al. 2012）。学者们发现了一个更大的困惑：后共产主义时代的人似乎不太支持民主转型，并且与自由民主规范脱节（Pop-Eleches & Tucker 2013）。这就提出了青年参与在塑造民主国家的社会政治格局和使社会民主化方面的作用的问题。虽然青年在过渡后最初表现出很高的选举参与率（Blum 2014; Nikolayenko 2017），但这些相互竞争的理论期望似乎映射到乌克兰的经验现实。年轻人在投票中弃权，但在非政府组织、志愿者、社会运动和政党青年组织中参与的比例很高。他们是2004年和2014年两次民主革命的核心力量（Onuch 2014）。有迹象表明，他们从事无党派政治组织，倡导分权、反腐败和多元文化主义（KIIS 2018）。乌克兰一直是一个温和的移民输出国，但自“欧洲独立广场”（EuroMaidan）以来的一系列事件，以及东部的武装敌对行动，促成了大规模的流离失所，从国内流向俄罗斯和欧盟。五年过去了，外迁仍在继续，主要记录为经济移民。尽管人们对乌克兰和区域青年参与的模式和过程知之甚少，但它被视为和平发展的关键，也是国际行动者推动的政策部门的优先事项。对于研究后专制民主参与的学者和政策制定者来说，理解是什么激励、动员、抑制和遣散青年社会政治参与至关重要。该项目触及了青年选举参与率低和以政策为重点的民间社会参与率高的双重现象。它力求对学术和政策知识作出重要贡献，其范围是：将乌克兰置于比较区域的角度；分析不同时间和空间的青年参与模式；探索抗议和移民的决定因素和动态，作为动员的两种形式，参与理论话语；并阐明青年参与民主化与和平发展的政治影响。该项目应通过英国文化协会在乌克兰产生直接的政策影响。

Economic globalization, marginalization, and precarity have contributed to mobility, mass protest, and insurgency. Young people play a significant role in sustaining protest movements, and represent a core demographic in internal displacement and migration. Analysts have pointed to the interdependence of these two forms of mobilisation, and theoretical expectations of their drivers overlap significantly. The relationship between them has been theorized at the macro (De Haas & Sigona 2012), and individual levels (Hirschman 1993), yet the literatures on protest and migration tend to be discrete. This project takes Ukraine as a case to consider critically the relationship between youth engagement, protest and migration at moments of heightened political crisis and conflict. This includes analysis of the micro-foundations of mobilisation as mass protest and migration, in contextual and structural perspective, and exploration of the dynamics between them. What motivates and mobilises post-communist youth to become socially and politically engaged? In displacement how do people participate in the political and civic life of their home? Further, how does youth mobilisation in, across, and out of Ukraine relate to democratisation and peace development? I draw on the literatures of contentious politics (protest behaviour), and migration theory. Scholars exploring youth engagement highlight two concurrent patterns: although youth are less likely to vote than older generations (Blais & Dobrzynska 1998; Esser & De Vreese 2007), they are more likely to join and become the 'hard core' of grassroots/protest initiatives (Habermas 1971; Saunders et al. 2012). Scholars identify a further puzzle: post-communist generations appear less supportive of democratic transition, and disconnected from liberal democratic norms (Pop-Eleches & Tucker 2013). This raises questions for the role of youth engagement in shaping the socio-political landscape of democracies and democratizing societies. Although youth initially exhibited high rates of electoral engagement after transition (Blum 2014; Nikolayenko 2017), these competing theoretical expectations seem to map onto empirical realities in Ukraine. Youth have abstained from voting but engage at high rates in non-government, volunteer, social movements, and political party youth-wing organizations. They have been the central force behind two democratic revolutions in 2004 and 2014 (Onuch 2014). There is some indication that they engage in non-partisan political organization, championing decentralization, anti-corruption and multi-culturalism (KIIS 2018). Ukraine has been a moderate migrant producing country, but a succession of events since EuroMaidan, and armed hostilities in the east, precipitated mass displacement, internally, to Russia, and the EU. Five years on, out-migration continues, predominantly recorded as economic. Although little is known about the patterns and process of youth engagement in Ukraine and regionally, it is seen as key to peace development, and a priority in policy sectors, promoted by international actors. Developing understanding of what motivates, mobilizes, disincentivizes and demobilizes, youth socio-political engagement is vital for scholars of post-authoritarian democratic participation, and policy makers. This project strikes the dual phenomenon of low rates of electoral engagement and high rates of policy-focused civil society engagement for youth. It seeks to make an important contribution to scholarly and policy knowledge, with scope to: place Ukraine in comparative regional perspective; analyse patterns of youth engagement over time and space; explore determinants and dynamics of protest and migration, as two forms of mobilisation, participating in theoretical discourse; and elucidate the political impact of youth engagement around democratisation and peace development. The project should have direct policy impact through the British Council in Ukraine.