Convergence Clubs in Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads and the Impact on Bank Lending

拟议项目中的关键联系是政府债券市场趋同的存在与银行注册地对贷款行为的影响之间的联系。这种创新至少是二维的。首先，趋同“俱乐部”的存在给财政纪律较弱的国家的银行带来了额外的风险。银行可能面临更高的融资成本，随之而来的是其估值的降低，以及为维持足够的盈利水平而过度冒险的可能性。其次，欧洲主权债券市场演变的实证模型将提供一些见解，说明在债券收益率将持续处于极低甚至为负的时代背景下，有必要刺激银行向企业放贷。

The key connection in the proposed project is between the existence of convergence in government bond markets and the impact of bank domicile on lending behaviour. The innovation is at least two-dimensional. Firstly, the presence of convergence 'clubs' creates additional risks for the banks in countries with less fiscal discipline. Banks may face a higher cost of funding, with the consequent reduction in their valuation and potential for excessive risk-taking to maintain an adequate level of profitability. Secondly, the empirical model of the evolution of the European sovereign bond market will deliver insights on the need to stimulate bank lending to businesses in the context of the expectation of a sustained era of very low and negative bond yields.