Mind the gap: trade rules and the digital economy

本项目关注的是现行贸易规则与数字贸易之间的差距。多边贸易规则最初旨在促进实物商品贸易，最近一次更新是在20多年前。新的数字技术正在改变贸易的性质。直到最近还只能以实物形式交易的产品，现在可以通过互联网进行数字化和交易。数字化导致可数字化商品贸易从2000年占商品贸易总额的2.7%下降到2016年的0.8%，随着3D打印技术的出现，这一趋势可能会持续下去（WTO，2018）。同样，不久前只有在供应商和消费者之间的地理位置接近的情况下才能进行交易的服务，现在只需点击鼠标就可以在线提供。2010年至2015年，ICT服务出口增长了40%，达到4670亿美元（UNCTAD，2017）。交易者的本质也在发生变化。传统上局限于当地贸易的中小微企业现在可以在全球范围内提供其产品和服务。而且，贸易壁垒也不可避免地在发生变化。直到2000年，全球只有19项数据本地化措施。措施的数量在2008年翻了一番多，直到今天又翻了一番（ECIPE，2018）。无论是为了解决合法的公共政策问题，如保护在线消费者，保护隐私，打击网络犯罪，还是纯粹出于保护主义目的，事实是，各司法管辖区已经采取了新的和多样化的政策措施，这些措施有可能使这个新兴的全球数字市场碎片化。在此背景下，该CASE奖学金将与国际贸易部（DIT）合作开展，其目的是探索当前贸易规则与数字贸易之间的差距程度（当前贸易规则是否有效打击数字保护主义？）货物贸易规则和服务贸易规则之间的区别是否仍然适合数字背景下的目的？），确定和评估国际上基于规则的举措，以弥补这一差距（最近的优惠贸易协定如何应对这些挑战？在贸易协定之外，还有哪些国家主导的数字贸易合作倡议？标准制定者和其他非国家行为者在数字贸易治理中的作用是什么？并在可能的情况下，提出改进的替代方案（最近为适应这一新形势而进行的贸易规则改革在多大程度上适合于确保一个开放、非歧视、但也安全的数字市场？还能做什么？）。该项目将有助于我们从理论上理解贸易治理如何适应不断变化的环境。研究结果将产生新的证据，帮助DIT根据数字经济的特殊需求调整其贸易政策的制定和实施，包括与第三国的贸易协定谈判。

This project is concerned with the gap between current trade rules and digital trade. Multilateral trade rules, originally designed to facilitate trade in physical goods, were last updated over twenty years ago. New digital technologies are changing the nature of trade. Products which until recently could only be traded in a physical format, can now be digitised and traded over the internet. Digitalisation has led to a decline in trade of digitisable goods from 2.7% of total goods trade in 2000 to 0.8% in 2016 and the trend is likely to continue with the advent of 3D printing technology (WTO, 2018). Likewise, services which not long ago could only be transacted if there was physical proximity between supplier and consumer can now be supplied online at the click of a mouse. Exports of ICT services grew by 40% between 2010 and 2015 and amounted to $467bn (UNCTAD, 2017). The nature of traders is also changing. MSMEs, traditionally confined to local trade, can now offer their products and services globally. And, inevitably, trade barriers are changing as well. Until the year 2000, only 19 data localisation measures were imposed globally. The number of measures more than doubled in 2008 and it doubled again until today (ECIPE, 2018). Whether it is to address legitimate public policy concerns, such as the protection of online consumers, protection of privacy, combatting cybercrime, or for purely protectionist purposes, the fact is that new and diverse policy measures have been adopted across jurisdictions that risk fragmenting this emerging global digital market. Against this background, the aim of this CASE studentship, which will be undertaken in collaboration with the Department for International Trade (DIT), is to explore the extent of the gap between current trade rules and digital trade (Are current trade rules effective to combat digital protectionism?; Does the distinction between rules for trade in goods and rules for trade in services remain fit for purpose in a digital context?), identify and assess international rule-based initiatives to bridge such a gap (How are recent Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs)responding to these challenges?; What other state-led initiatives for cooperation on digital trade exist outside trade agreements?; What is the role of standard-setters and other non-state actors in the governance of digital trade?) and, where possible, suggest alternatives for improvement (To what extent recent reforms to adjust trade rules to this new landscape are suitable for securing an open and nondiscriminatory, but also safe digital market? What else could be done?). The project will contribute to our theoretical understanding of how trade governance adjusts to a changing environment. The research findings will generate new evidence to help DIT calibrate the formulation and implementation of its trade policy to the particular demands of the digital economy, including the negotiation of trade agreements with third countries.