Assessing the unintended consequences of structural coastal flood protection

环境署估计，全国有1500亿英镑的资产和400万人目前面临沿海洪水的风险，因此它被评为英国第二大可能的民事紧急情况原因。Church et al. 2013表明，由于平均海平面上升加速以及与气候变化相关的风暴可能发生变化，沿海洪水是一个日益严重的威胁，持续的人口增长和洪水暴露地区的发展加剧了这种威胁。在整个世纪，实际上也许现在，硬工程防御一直是适应沿海洪水风险的默认选择。然而，气候变化委员会2016指出，国家目前的洪水风险管理水平被认为是不够的;特别是在海平面上升和日益增长的社会经济和环境压力方面，因此在可持续性方面，需要采用新的积极主动的沿海洪水灾害管理方法，这些方法需要使用更广泛的工具和知识威尔金森等人，2015; Bracken等人，2016.以结构防御为主的海岸线不仅带来了相关的维护和保养成本，而且许多学者Vorogushyn等人，2017年; Hallegate，2017年; Aiden等人，2018年已经注意到，防洪的持续升级可能导致基础设施密度增加，价值更高的资产和货物比其他情况下更靠近海岸线：它对国防造成了更大的压力，迫使一个积极主动的政府对国防进行昂贵的升级，往往导致更大的密度增加，并锁定在一个反馈回路中，即安全发展悖论，由此矛盾的是，防御的增加可能导致总体风险的增加。混凝土主导的发展似乎是绝对的，并在人口中产生自满情绪，可能导致缺乏洪水防备和响应能力，以及意外失败的灾难性后果，例如卡特里娜飓风袭击新奥尔良后的破坏。风险通常被引用为危害、暴露和脆弱性的函数，通过减少危害，政府可能会无意中增加人口的脆弱性，因此洪水风险实际上可能会增加沿海防洪结构的意外后果。 因此，该项目的目的是发展一个多学科的全面了解防洪的意外后果和对未来的洪水风险管理政策选择的潜在影响。该项目将基于对不同案例研究的比较分析，以及使用基于ABM代理的建模创建一个社会水文模型。它将寻求建议洪水机构和决策者对意外的，往往是未合并的，社会，经济，水文和沿海防洪的环境后果，以及英国面临的挑战，实际上其他沿海国家，在不断变化的气候。

The Environment Agency estimate that nationally there are £150 billion of assets and 4 million people that are currently at risk of coastal flooding, and so it is rated as the second highest possible cause of civil emergency in the UK. Church et al. 2013 suggest that coastal flooding is a growing threat due to accelerating average sea-level rise and possible changes in storminess associated with climate change, exacerbated by continued population growth and development on flood-exposed areas Hallegate et al. 2013 therefore any attempt to understand coastal flood events is of the utmost importance. Throughout the twentieth century, and indeed perhaps presently, hard engineering defences have been the default option for adapting to coastal flooding risk. However, the Committee on Climate Change2016 identify that nationally current levels of flood risk management are considered insufficient; especially with regard to sea-level rise and growing socio-economic and environmental pressures, and so in the context of sustainability, new and proactive approaches for the management of coastal flood hazards are needed that engage with a much wider set of tools and knowledge Wilkinson et al., 2015; Bracken et al., 2016. Structural defence dominated coastlines not only come with the associated costs of maintenance and upkeep, but numerous scholars Vorogushyn et al., 2017; Hallegate, 2017; Aerts et al., 2018 have noted that the continued upgrading of flood defences can lead to an increased density of infrastructure and higher value assets and goods placed closer to the coastline than otherwise would be there: it creates an increased pressure on the defence, forcing a proactive government to implement expensive upgrades to the defence, often leading to greater density increases and locking in a feedback loop the safe development paradox, whereby paradoxically an increase in defence, may lead to increase in overall risk. Concrete led development appears absolute and generates a feeling of complacency amongst a population, potentially leading to a lack of flood preparedness and responsiveness, and catastrophic consequences of unexpected failures, such as the devastation that hit New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina Kates, et al, 2006. Risk is often quoted as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, and by reducing hazard a government may inadvertently increase the vulnerability of a population, and so the risk of flooding may actually increase an unintended consequence of structural coastal flood protection. Therefore, the aim of the project is to develop a multidisciplinary comprehensive understanding of the unintended consequences of flood defences and potential implications on future flood risk management policy choices. The project will be based on a comparative analysis of different case studies and the creation of a socio hydrological model using ABM agent based modelling. It will seek to advise flood agencies and policy makers on unintended, and often unincorporated, social, economic, hydrological, and environmental consequences of coastal flood defences, and the challenges facing the UK, and indeed other coastal countries, in a changing climate.