Sustainably securing the future of food: will Chinese investments in the Global South hinder or help?

这项研究提出了以下问题：中国在农业部门的海外投资将如何影响接受国的粮食安全和农业生物多样性？中国改善全球粮食供应和刺激发展的愿望可以为保障发展中国家的可持续农业和粮食安全提供途径。中国提出的一带一路倡议将最大的新兴经济体与全球南方连接起来，涉及雄心勃勃的陆地基础设施和海上航线。中国的金融支持涵盖了基础设施、能源、矿业和农业。中国的海外投资是会增强还是削弱受援国的生物多样性和粮食安全，目前尚无定论。我提出的研究试图通过调查中国在全球南方的农业投资的可持续性影响来解决这个难题。我的调查追求以下目标：1.确定参与中国海外农业项目的国家和非国家行为者，以及他们在促进可持续农业方面的各自机构。2.调查中国投资项目背后的决策过程和制度驱动因素：是什么决定了选定的受援国、项目和农业生产体系的选择？3.衡量中国海外农业投资对两个受援国落实可持续发展目标的影响：这些投资如何帮助或阻碍目标2(零饥饿)和目标15(陆上生活)的实现？通过涉及定量和定性数据收集和分析的混合方法研究，研究将从定量分析中国投资与农业生物多样性之间的关系开始。将使用地理信息系统技术创建柬埔寨和老挝农业生物多样性的新数据集，并建立中国在这些国家的农业投资项目的综合数据库。在建立受援国农业生物多样性和中国农业投资的原始数据库后，我将使用计量经济学技术来确定投资项目对农业生物多样性和粮食安全的影响因素。量化结果将有助于我就中国投资项目影响可持续发展的因果过程提出假设，并通过实地考察确定用于深入案例研究的项目。定性阶段将包括对中国和受援国参与提名项目的从业人员进行深入采访。我将根据量化结果选择案例，找出中国投资影响当地可持续发展的因果过程，并比较积极影响与消极影响的案例。定性分析将揭示中国的投资如何在不同的背景下影响农业生物多样性和粮食安全。通过详细阐述地理空间分析与计量经济学和定性方法相结合的创新混合方法，我的研究弥合了定性和定量的鸿沟，有助于全面、多尺度地理解中国海外农业投资的可持续影响。这项调查通过考察外国投资对实现可持续发展目标的影响，揭示了中国在海外农业投资中鲜为人知的决策过程，实证地解决了一个重要的差距。在寻求确定保护生态系统和粮食安全的最佳环境和社会实践方面，这些发现可以为中国国有企业、各国政府和其他关键利益攸关方提供政策影响，以提高外国农业投资的可持续性。

This research proposes to ask the following question: how will China's overseas investments in the agricultural sector impact food security and agrobiodiversity in recipient nations? China's aspirations to improve global food supply and stimulate development could provide paths for safeguarding sustainable agriculture and food security in developing countries. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) connects the largest emerging economy with the Global South and involves ambitious land infrastructure and maritime routes. China's financial support encompasses infrastructure, energy, mining, and agriculture. Whether China's overseas investments will enhance or dissipate biodiversity and food security in recipient nations remains unresolved. My proposed research seeks to address this puzzle by investigating the sustainability impact of China's agricultural investments in the Global South. My investigation pursues the following objectives: 1. To identify the state and non-state actors involved in Chinese overseas agricultural projects and their respective agency in promoting sustainable agriculture. 2. To investigate the decision-making processes and systemic drivers behind China's investment projects: what determines the recipient nations selected, the choice of projects and agricultural production systems? 3. To measure the impact of China's overseas agricultural investments on the implementation of the SDGs in the two recipient countries: how do the investments help or hinder the achievement of: Goal 2 (Zero Hunger) and Goal 15(Life on Land)? Through mixed-methods research involving quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis, the research will begin by quantitatively analysing the relationship between Chinese investments and agrobiodiversity. GIS techniques will be used to create a novel dataset on agrobiodiversity in Cambodia and Laos and build a comprehensive dataset on China's agricultural investment projects in these nations. Upon building original databases of agrobiodiversity and Chinese agricultural investments across the recipient nations, I will use econometric techniques to identify the factors conditioning the impact of investment projects upon agrobiodiversity and food security. The quantitative findings will assist me in formulating hypotheses on the causal processes through which Chinese investment projects impact sustainable development and in identifying projects for in-depth case studies through fieldwork. The qualitative stage will involve in-depth interviews with practitioners involved in the nominated projects in China and the recipient nations. I will select cases based on quantitative results and identify the causal processes through which Chinese investments impact sustainable development in the local context and compare cases of positive against null or negative impact. The qualitative analysis will reveal how Chinese investments affect agrobiodiversity and food security across different contexts. In detailing an innovative mixed-methodology combining geospatial analysis with econometrics and qualitative methods, my research bridges a qualitative-quantitative divide, contributing a comprehensive, multi-scalar understanding of the sustainability impact of China's overseas agricultural investments. The investigation empirically addresses an important gap by unpacking the lesser understood decision-making processes of China's overseas agricultural investments through investigating the influence of foreign investments on attaining SDGs. In seeking to identify the best environmental and social practices for safeguarding ecosystems and food security, the findings can offer policy implications for Chinese SOEs, national governments and other key stakeholders for improving sustainability in foreign agricultural investments.