Deployment pathways, technological options, and potential impacts of increasing demand for cooling in UK dwellings

来自多个国家的证据表明，随着夏季气温的升高，制冷需求迅速呈非线性上升。许多现有的英国住房既缺乏被动措施，也缺乏主动措施来限制夏季温度，在气候中演变，很少达到所需的温度。但不断变化的气候，加上许多现代住宅设计的不佳，意味着我们可以预期，在未来几十年里，对制冷的需求和部署将大幅增加。然而，夏季气温的自然变化，加上制冷需求的急剧上升（作为温度的函数），意味着未来在新建和现有住房中部署制冷系统的轨迹不太可能是平稳的。未来的热浪很有可能与2003年的热浪一样或更严重，引发制冷需求的急剧变化，并导致临时部署制冷系统，而不考虑效率、局部环境影响（例如噪音）、对配电系统的影响、被动措施的潜在作用，以及在更广泛的能源系统内可能产生的协同效应。不利影响可能不成比例地落在不太富裕的人口上，在某些地区，特别是伦敦和东南部，特别是住房类型，例如高层住房，影响最为明显。不可能排除近期发生气候事件的可能性，这种事件将压倒供应链、监管体系和建筑业主（包括地方当局和住房协会）的一致应对能力。研究领域是家庭新主动制冷需求的可能规模和时间尺度以及可能的政策响应。上述研究领域是广泛的，跨越了许多学科（如工程、社会科学、地理、气候学）。这种方法可以是技术的，也可以是社会技术的。我们邀请申请人选择他们想要研究的研究领域的一个方面，以及合适的研究方法。例如：-能源系统架构方法，用于研究在不同房屋原型中部署冷却的技术选择，以及这些选择与能源系统其余部分的潜在相互作用。-社会技术案例研究方法，研究人们在过热房屋中的生活经历，以及这如何导致安装冷却技术。

Evidence from multiple countries shows that demand for cooling rises rapidly and non-linearly as summer temperatures rise. Much existing UK housing lacks both passive and active measures to limit summertime temperatures, having evolved in a climate that rarely reached temperatures that required either. But changing climate, coupled with poor design of much modern housing, means that we can expect to see significant increases in demand for and deployment of cooling in coming decades.However, natural variability in summertime temperatures, coupled with the sharp onset and rapid rise of demand for cooling as a function of temperature, means that the trajectory of future deployment of cooling in new and existing housing is unlikely to be smooth. There is a significant probability that a future heat wave, as or more severe than that of 2003, would trigger a step change in demand for cooling, and lead to ad hoc deployment of cooling systems with little regard for efficiency, local environmental impacts (e.g. noise), impact on electricity distribution systems, potential role of passive measures, and possible synergies within the wider energy system. Adverse impacts are likely to fall disproportionately on less well-off demographics, and to be most apparent in certain regions, particularly London and the South-East, and in particular housing types - e.g. high-rise housing. It is not possible to rule out the possibility of a near-term climate event that would overwhelm the capacity of the supply chain, the regulatory system, and building owners including local authorities and housing associations to respond coherently.The research area is the likely size and timescale of new active cooling demand in homes and the possible policy responses to it.The research area described above is broad, spanning many disciplines (e.g. engineering, social science, geography, climatology). The approach could be technical or socio-technical. We invite applicants to choose one aspect of the research area that they would like to research, along with a suitable research approach. For example:- An energy system architecture approach to research technology options for deploying cooling in different housing archetypes, and on the potential interactions of such options with the rest of the energy system. - A socio-technical case study approach to research people's experiences of living in overheated homes and how this could lead to installation of cooling technologies.