What are the Consequences of Disease Transmission Heterogeneities for Disease Outbreaks?

我们目前非常清楚人们对人类新出现的传染病的日益担忧。新出现的疾病也是许多野生动物保护的主要问题。要了解、预测和管理这些疫情，需要对个人层面的传播驱动因素有深入的了解。病原体传播是推动新传染病出现和传播的基本过程。传播通常被概念化为一个“集体行动”过程，即易感人群和受感染人群的同质群体随机相遇。但现实完全不同；由于遗传、表型和环境原因，并不是所有的人都同样容易感染，也不是所有受感染的人都同样具有传染性。如果我们要制定有效的疾病缓解战略，量化这些变异来源并了解它们对疾病出现、传播和控制的后果是至关重要的。该项目的目标是：1)开发理论来预测疾病传播过程中异质性的后果。2)使用该理论建立疾病出现、传播和控制的模型。3)在实验室和现场的一系列环境情景下，使用无脊椎动物经验系统对这些预测进行实验测试。该项目将结合传染病生态学的理论和经验方面，深入了解传染性、易感性和接触率的异质性如何影响传染病的传播和影响。

We are currently only too aware of the ever-increasing concerns about emerging infectious diseases in humans. Emerging diseases are also a major conservation concern for many wildlife. To understand, predict and manage these outbreaks requires a sophisticated understanding of the individual-level drivers of transmission.Pathogen transmission is the fundamental process that drives the emergence and spread of new infectious diseases. Transmission is typically conceptualised as a 'mass action' process, where homogenous groups of susceptible and infected individuals encounter each other at random. But the reality is quite different; due to genetic, phenotypic and environmental reasons, not all individuals are equally susceptible and not all infected individuals are equally infectious. Quantifying these sources of variation, and understanding their consequences for disease emergence, spread and control is vital if we are to develop effective disease mitigation strategies. The aims of the project are:1) Develop theory to predict the consequences of heterogeneity in the disease transmission process.2) Use this theory to build models of disease emergence, spread and control. 3) Test these predictions experimentally using an invertebrate empirical system under a range of environmental scenarios in the lab and field.The project will combine theoretical and empirical aspects of infectious disease ecology to provide insight into how heterogeneities in infectiousness, susceptibility and contact rate influence the spread and impact of infectious diseases.